Eurovision 2023: The bets after the fourth day of rehearsals!

The favourite column of many of you is back, as the betting analysis for the 67th Eurovision Song Contest is back again.

With one week to go until the Eurovision 2023 semi-finals, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.

Top 5

Largely unchanged remains the situation at the top of the betting tables, with Loreen and Sweden seen as the heavy favourites to win the 67th Eurovision Song Contest. Despite the fact that the rehearsal clips of the Swedish entry were flawed, especially compared to their Melodifestivalen performance, Sweden are still being played at odds of under 2.

Finland, who are one of the winners of the first days in Liverpool, have increased their chances of victory. Käärijä and “Cha Cha Cha” are steadily gaining ground, making them Loreen’s rival in this year’s contest. The lowest odds on the Finnish win are being played at 3.6, with most companies having dropped Finland’s odds below 3.

In third, fourth and fifth place the situation remains stable, with Ukraine, France and Spain rounding out the Top 5. As all three of them start their rehearsals at the Liverpool Arena today, we wait to see whether the view of the bookers who place them within the top five will change. Ukraine and France return up to 15 times the money of anyone who bets on them, while Spain return 17 times. In any case, the differences between them are infinitesimal.

Top 10

In the remaining five places in the top ten we find three countries that have already made their appearance on the stage of this year’s contest and two countries that are starting their rehearsals today ahead of the 67th Eurovision Song Contest.

In sixth place is Norway and in seventh place is Israel. Both are participating in the first semi-final, with their odds after yesterday’s release of the 30-second clip not particularly altering their odds of winning this year’s contest. Slightly worse odds for Norway who are now at 21, slightly better for Israel whose odds of victory for the explosive Noa Kirel have dropped to 26.

Stable remains Austria in eighth place, with their win odds having dropped at some companies, however Teya & Salina‘s win returns up to 41 times the stake at some companies. Ninth place goes to Italy and Marco Mengoni, with odds ranging between 26 and 51, while the top ten is completed by the UK at odds of 81.

First Semifinal

As part of this analysis, we will also take a first look at the odds of qualifying for the grand final. We start with the first semi-final, for which the participating countries have already finished their first two rehearsals on stage at the Liverpool Arena and will return on Monday for show rehearsals.

Six countries are considered a given to qualify, with Sweden, Finland, Norway, Israel, the Czech Republic and Moldova offered by bookers at odds of under 1.10. Significantly, the odds on the top four countries in particular return almost nothing to those who bet on them. For example, in the event that someone bets ten euros on their qualification, they will only make a profit of ten cents of a euro.

Serbia seems to be in a league of its own, being considered the seventh favourite to qualify for the grand final on 13 May. Luke Black’s qualification is offered at odds of around 1.30, with a clear distance between himself and both the leading and trailing countries.

A battle of four countries is expected for the remaining three spots leading to the grand final, according to betting companies. Croatia, Switzerland and Portugal appear to be in the best position, with the Netherlands currently seen as the eleventh favourite to qualify for the Eurovision 2023 grand final. Croatia is being played at 1.50, Switzerland at 1.53, Portugal at 1.57 and the Netherlands at 1.73. One understands that the differences between them are marginal and, therefore, qualification will be decided at the threshold.

The following countries, namely Malta, Latvia and Ireland, are considered less likely to qualify with their qualification odds being between 3 and 4, while Azerbaijan is by far in last place having the least chance of qualifying.

Second Semifinal

Regarding the second semi-final, things are even more difficult. Sixteen countries are participating in this semi-final, with twelve of them being played at odds of less than 2. It is understandable that bookers cannot easily come up with the top ten that will qualify for the final.

Austria, Australia, Cyprus and Armenia are seen by bookmakers as certain to qualify, with their qualification returning up to 1.1 times the stake. Largely similar is the case with Lithuania and Slovenia, who are being played at 1.20.

Seventh-placed Georgia is in a league of its own, with odds of between 1.25 and 1.29, with the possibility of qualification the most prevalent, while the same could be said for eighth-placed Belgium, which is being played at 1.35.

Rounding out the top ten are Poland and Denmark, who gained ground after the release of their first rehearsal snippet on TikTok. Both are being played at odds of less than 1.57.

Eleventh place Greece is being played at odds of between 1.40 and 1.83, though still within the top ten at some companies. Among the losers of the early rehearsals is Estonia, whose odds of qualifying for the grand final on 13 May have gone up. The maximum odds offered for qualification are the same as Greece’s, at 1.83.

Albania has a significant chance of qualifying, albeit less compared to the leading countries, and is one of the most Value for Money betting options for this semi-final. The only ethnic song in the semi-final is being played at odds between 2 and 2.63.

The bookies are also giving qualification odds to Iceland, which is being played at 3. On the other hand, the elimination of Romania and San Marino, whose qualification returns up to 8.5 times the stake, is almost taken for granted.

Do you think Loreen can make history in Liverpool in May, giving Sweden victory for the second time and equaling the historic record of the contest’s multiple winner, Ireland?

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