Eurovision 2023: The bets after the rehearsals of the two semi-finals!
The favourite column of many of you is back, as the betting analysis for the 67th Eurovision Song Contest is back again.
With one week to go until the Eurovision 2023 Grand Final, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of qualifying in this year’s Grand Final.
We start with the first semi-final, where six countries are largely taken for granted to qualify for next Saturday’s grand final. Sweden, Finland, Norway and Israel are all priced at 1.01, giving no profit at all to those betting on their qualification, while the Czech Republic and Moldova are offered at odds of under 1.10.
Beyond that, Serbia seem to be in a league of their own, seen as the seventh favourite to qualify for the grand final on May 13. Luke Black’s qualification is being offered at odds of around 1.30, with a clear distance from both the leading and trailing countries.
Four countries will battle it out for the last three ‘tickets’ to the Eurovision 2023 grand final, according to bookers. Switzerland, Portugal, Croatia and the Netherlands have their own very high chances of qualifying, with Switzerland being played between 1.33 and 1.44, Portugal and Croatia between 1.4 and 1.5 and the Netherlands between 1.57 and 1.67. The Netherlands are in a more difficult position compared to the other three, but their qualification odds are anything but a betting opportunity.
Malta, Latvia, Ireland and Azerbaijan are seen as underdogs for qualification, but in any case the odds on offer could be a lure for those who believe in the qualification of any of these countries.
Regarding the winner of the first semi-final, things are clear. The absolute favourite to win the first semi-final is Finland, which is offered at odds between 1.33 and 1.44. The dynamics of Käärijä and “Cha Cha Cha“, as well as the fact that the crowd decides this year in the two semi-finals are key reasons why the Finnish victory is offered at such low odds.
Second favourite is Sweden, played at odds between 3 and 4, making it a value for money choice, especially for those backing the heavy favourite for the 67th Eurovision Song Contest. Otherwise, all other countries are offered at much higher odds, with only Israel and Norway being hauntingly close to Finland and Sweden. Israel and Norway are being played at odds of under 20.
The second semi-final is expected to be quite controversial, with 13 countries having a fairly significant chance of qualifying for the grand final on 13 May. Austria, Australia and Cyprus are seen by bookers as the firm favourites to qualify, with their presence in the final of this year’s contest largely assured. The maximum odds on offer for their qualification are under 1.10.
Armenia, Lithuania, Slovenia follow, with Armenia‘s qualification returning up to 1.14 times the stake, Lithuania 1.17 times and Slovenia 1.20 times. These are three countries that are considered highly unlikely to be eliminated next Thursday. The same more or less applies to seventh-placed Georgia, which is being played between 1.2 and 1.25.
Belgium and Poland seem to be in a fairly advantageous position, having created distance compared to the countries that – according to the betting companies – will fight for the tenth and last ticket. Belgium is offered at odds below 1.40, while odds slightly above 1.40 can be bet on Poland.
A big battle is expected for the tenth and final ticket of the second semi-final, with Denmark, Estonia, Greece and Albania battling it out. Denmark are said to have the edge at the moment, and are under immediate threat from Estonia. Denmark‘s qualification odds are rising, while Estonia‘s are falling. Denmark‘s qualification is offered at 1.73 and Estonia‘s at 1.83.
The situation is particularly discouraging in the case of Greece. The release of the 30-second snippet of “What They Say” has dropped Victor Vernicos to 12th place, with Greece on the brink of elimination, always according to the bookers. The country’s qualification odds have risen at several firms, with the possibility of qualification doubling the stakes. However, in many companies, Greece remains within the Top 10, with lower or similar odds to tenth placed Denmark.
13th Albania is trending upwards, confirming our last article in which we mentioned that it was the best value for money pick in the second semi-final. Albania’s qualification is showing a drop in all betting companies, “closing the gap” with the leading countries. Albanian qualification is being played at 2.5.
Finally, Iceland, Romania and San Marino have significantly less chance of qualifying after the first two rehearsals, with bookers largely taking it for granted that they will be eliminated from the continuation of the 67th Eurovision Song Contest.
The situation is wide open regarding the chances of winning the second semi-final, with Austria having the edge, although five countries are being played at odds of less than 10 for a win. Austria, Australia, Armenia, Slovenia and Cyprus are expected to battle it out to win the second semi-final, with Australia and Slovenia being the winners of the rehearsals, dropping their odds significantly. Maximum odds offered for Austria are 2.5, Australia 6, Armenia, Slovenia and Cyprus 11.
Which countries do you think will qualify for next Saturday’s grand final and “complete the puzzle” of the 26 finalists?
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