With just under ten hours to go until the Eurovision 2023 Grand Final, your favourite column will present for one last time the betting odds for the 67th Eurovision Song Contest taking place in Liverpool.
Your favourite column will bring you everything that has changed since last night’s Jury Show, both in terms of the winning case and the countries within the Top 10.
Winning probabilities
We seem to be heading towards a deafening victory for Sweden, as the odds for a victory for the Scandinavian country have reached an all-time low during this year’s Eurovision season. The performance in the first semi-final has given Loreen a ‘winning edge’, with the Swedish victory being played at as low as 1.36 at some firms, with the maximum available odds being 1.53.
In second place, with a clear downward trend in some companies, is Finland. Käärijä and “Cha Cha Cha” are Loreen‘s rival in this year’s competition, with Finland‘s win odds now ranging between 3 and 3.75. The Finnish entry has bounced back in recent days, with its odds dropping, effectively becoming the only country that can threaten Sweden from its historic seventh win.
Alone in third place is Ukraine, whose maximum win odds have risen to 15. Israel has moved up to fourth with an odds of 34, now being the highest position it has been in betting-wise during this year’s Eurovision season. The top five is completed by Spain, together with France. Both Big 5 countries are both being played at a maximum odds of 41, having lost ground in recent days after.
In seventh place is Norway, which is offered at odds of 67. Significantly, Norway‘s win odds show a huge discrepancy, with the lowest at 12 and the highest at 67. In eighth place is the United Kingdom at the same odds as ninth place Italy, with their win options offered at odds of 101. Finally, Austria completes the top ten at 126 odds.
Top 10
Of particular interest is one of the most popular markets for betting companies, that of entering the Top 10. Looking at the table below, it can be seen that bookers largely consider entry into the top 10 to be assured for a large proportion of the countries involved in the Grand Final.
Sweden and Finland are seen as the most certain to make the top 10, with bookers offering this particular option between 1.01 and 1.06. In other words, they consider a finish outside the top ten for the aforementioned countries to be an unrealistic scenario.
The same is largely true for Israel and Norway, whose finish inside the Top 10 is offered slightly higher between 1.10 and 1.18.
Quite good chances for another result inside the top ten, continuing the streak of the last few years, seem to be offered by Ukraine and Italy. Both playing between 1.30 and 1.36. Next, Spain and France are seen as the seventh and eighth most likely to occupy a spot within the top 10, being hand in hand as in the win odds. The presence of Spain and France in the Top 10 is being played at 1.44.
Armenia are also among the big favourites to take a place within the Top 10. Brunette and “Future Lover” are the latest country to be offered at odds below double, with Armenia‘s entry into the Top 10 being played between 1.40 and 1.67. If the bookers are correct, it will be the country’s best result since 2016.
A big battle is expected for the final spot in the Top 10; with bookmakers believing that four countries have high enough odds to place within the top 10. Belgium, Austria, Croatia and the Czech Republic return just under 3 times the stake of anyone betting on their presence in the Top 10.
Particularly value for money for those who like high odds is also Slovenia, who made an impression in Thursday’s second semi-final. Slovenia‘s entry into the Top 10 quadruples the stakes.
Conclusions
We are only a few hours away from the big winner of Eurovision 2023 and the truth is that Sweden is considered by the bookers as the most likely to win. Throughout Eurovision 2023, the Swedes have taken the lead and they won’t let it go until the end, with Finland lurking until the last minute claiming their own chances of winning. It remains to be seen whether the predictions will be confirmed this year as well.
As for the rest of the countries, places 3-7 are very close, while for the last Top 10 places the odds keep changing. One thing is for sure, everything can change and the bets are nothing but a reflection of the players’ trends at the betting companies.
