Eurovision 2020: Frustrating betting failure in the national finals

We have a very strange year this year, as in almost all national selections bets have failed to find the winner. Does this mean something for the winners of the May contest?

Betting on the national finals in Estonia, Ukraine, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Italy failed to predict the winner correctly. The only case where the bets were correct was in Iceland and Norway. But let’s look at them in detail.

Betting failures

In Sanremo, Italy, the festival’s opening day was Anastasio with the final winner Diodato just sixth. In Ukraine, betting failure was unprecedented, with only 1%,the Go-A winning 68%, and the end result was different. In Estonia, Jaagum Tuisk was a big favorite with a double chance of winning. But the result was overwhelming in favor of Uku Suviste, who won Eesti Laul with 68% of the vote. Finland has perhaps had the biggest surprise of this season. Erika Vikman with “Ciciolina” was a sure winner for most. With very low odds on bets and millions of views and streamings. She finally came in second behind Aksel Kankaanranta. A big favorite in Sweden was Dotter, who preceded not only bets but also polls and YouTube views. The Mamas, though with higher odds, did the surprise and beat Dotter by one point. Finally, in Denmark, although we had similar performances for the first two songs, at the time of live show, the winning entry was second, from a song not even qualified to the superfinal.

The few successes

The only betting successes at this year’s national finals were in Iceland and Norway. In Iceland, contrary to the forecasts of fans who wanted Iva to win the national final, they correctly concluded that Daði & Gagnamagnið would be the winners of the Söngvakeppnin 2020. The second correct prediction winner came to Norway, with Ulrikke Brandst.

The bets on the Eurovision winner

The winners of the contest are also hesitant, since we do not remember less than two months after Eurovision, the first favorite to have a 5.5 to 7 odds, when at the respective time of the previous years, the the first favorite had odds of even less than 3.

Isn’t there a song that can convince that it can win? Is it about the failures of companies to predict the winners in the national finals? Do they think that the staging of the entries will really overturn current forecasts?

The truth is that this year we have the most bizarre and unpredictable competition and many will change by Saturday 16 May.