We are two days away from the start of the rehearsals in Malmö and that’s why one of Eurovisionfun‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with the Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.
As you prepare for the pivotal days ahead with the climax of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest celebrations, the bookers are already getting down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already on offer across all bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next contest.
The five that became four
A battle for four seems to be shaping up in this year’s contest, with Switzerland, Croatia, the Netherlands and Italy having a distinct lead over their pursuers and Ukraine ‘losing ground’ recently after the parties.
More specifically, at the top, now having a clear lead over its competitors, is Switzerland. With two 24 hours to go until the start of rehearsals in the Swedish south, Nemo‘s “The Code” starts from pole-position to win Switzerland‘s coveted third victory in its almost 70-year presence in the Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3.1, becoming the first to break the triple barrier this year.
In second place remains Croatia, who have been firmly established in the top two of the betting tables for the past two months, with their odds remaining largely stable after this year’s pre-parties. Baby Lasagna and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” will go all the way for a maiden Croatian victory, with bookers offering odds of between 3.25 and 4.6.
The absolute hit on Western and Central European radios, the Netherlands, continues its rally up the betting tables. Joost Klein‘s “Europapa” has made an impression and is sweeping the charts and streams across much of the Old Continent, now bringing the Netherlands into fourth place. We told you long ago through this column about the dynamics of this entry, which was one of the dark horses of this year’s contest. Now in third place and offered at odds of between 4.25 and 5.5, it is anything but a dark horse, with betting companies recognising its potential and moving it up two places.
Fourth, with a slightly downward trend, but within a fairly close distance of the three leading countries, is Italy. Angelina Mango with “La Noia” may have lost one place compared to our last analysis, nevertheless the chances of a second Italian victory in this decade are highly respected. Between 5.75 and 7.5 is offered for Italian victory for those who believe in Angelina Mango‘s potential.
The top five is now completed by Ukraine, who have lost the momentum they had at the beginning of this year’s Eurovision season when they were considered the early favourites to win in Malmö. With the gap between the four leading countries having widened, bookers are offering Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil’s victory at the highest odds we have seen offered during this year’s Eurovision season. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 8.5 and 17.
Top 10
With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place, France has quietly risen to sixth, and has consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane, with France gaining one place in the last few days.
Among the gainers in recent weeks is Israel, which has moved up to seventh place. Eden Golan and “Hurricane” have gained four places in the last period, steadily gaining momentum as evidenced by the reactions she is garnering on social media on the official Eurovision account. Israel’s victory is offered at odds between 21 and 36.
Greece is still in eighth place. The “tailwind” after the release of Marina Satti‘s “ZARI” brought our country inside the Top 10, with Greece now stabilizing within it and having a safety margin over its pursuers.
Marina Satti‘s win is currently being played at odds between 21 and 41, slightly higher compared to our last analysis, with bookers, however, giving a vote of confidence to the Greek entry.
The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have now moved up to ninth place, being five places higher compared to our last analysis. Up to 51 times the stake is returned on Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“.
Rounding out the top ten is Belgium, who have been the disappointment so far this Eurovision season. Mustii‘s pre-party performances with his mildly unacceptable rendition of “Before the Party’s Over” has brought Belgium into tenth place, showing a drop of four places compared to our last analysis. Belgium’s victory is currently being bet on odds between 26 and 67.
Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!
