Eurovision 2022: What does the running order for the Second Semi-Final reveal? (Statistics)

We are only a few days away from this year’s Eurovision Song Contest which will take place in Turin. Soon the rehearsals of this year’s 40 entries will begin, giving us a taste of what we will see on stage during the three big nights of Eurovision, but also clarifying the fate of possible favourites.

In our previous article, we analyzed which countries have the best chance of taking part in the final, in accordance with their position in the running order of the First Semi-Final.

Now, we are going to analyze the Second Semi-Final of Eurovision Song Contest 2022.

In the following article, we will analyse which countries have the best chance of making it to the Grand Final, depending on the position in which they were placed to compete and specifically the history of each country, since the system of semi-finals in 2008, that competed in that position. Finally, we will also look at how the countries that competed in those positions ranked in the semi-finals.

Eighteen countries will compete on Thursday, May 12 for the last ten tickets to the Grand Final on May 14.

1. Finland

The second semi-final will start with The Rasmus and the song “Jezebel“. A strong opening for the semi-final.

Performing first in the semi-final, is greatly favorable, while only four countries have not qualified from the first place. (2010, 2013, 2017 and 2019)

That means, nine of the thirteen countries that performed first, qualified for the Final. Specifically, in 2008 (8th), 2009 (13th, it was the wildcard of the juries), 2011 (5th), 2012 (2nd), 2014 (9th), 2015 (7th), 2016 (8th), 2018 (2nd) and 2021 (9th).

2. Israel

In second, ominous, place Michael Ben David will perform his song “I.M.”

However, second place in this semi-final, is almost in the same level with that of the first semi-final.

In this place, seven countries haven’t managed to qualify for the final, while six have qualified, in 2008 (12th it was the wildcard of the juries), 2010 (6th), 2011 (7th), 2012 (9th), 2016 (6th) and 2017 (7th).

3. Serbia

Konstrakta will perform “In Corpore Sano“, in third place.

Third place is one of the worst in this semi-final. Only four countries have qualified, in 2008(7th), 2010(8th), 2014(6th), 2018(9th ).

4. Azerbaijan

Nadir Rustamli with the song “Fade to Black”, will perform fourth.

Statistically, fourth place is a great place, as eight songs from the thirteen, qualified for the final, in 2008(1st), 2010(5th), 2012(7th), 2013(1st), 2015(9th), 2016(7t) 2019(4th) and 2021 (6th).

5. Georgia

Circus Mircus will perform “Lock Me In”, in fifth place.

Statistically speaking, is one of the worst places in the second semi-final. Omly four countries have managed to qualify in 2013(9th), 2014(8th), 2017(6th), 2018(5th).

6. Malta

Emma Muscat is the representative of Malta with the song “I Am What I Am”.

It is statistically one of the best positions, only five countries have not qualified from sixth place, in 210, 2012, 2018, 2019 and 2021.

That is, eight out of 12 countries that performed sixth qualified for the final in 2008(9th), 2009(1st), 2011(6th), 2013(4th), 2014(1st), 2015(4th), 2016(10th), 2017(4th).

7. San Marino

San Marino’s Achille Lauro will perform “Stripper” in seventh place.

Statistically, seventh place is a moderate place, as only seven countries have qualified in 2010(2nd), 2011(10th), 2012(8th), 2017(2nd), 2018(3rd), 2019(10th) and 2021(7th).

8. Australia

Sheldon Riley with “Not the Same” is the representative of Australia.

Based on statistics, it is a great place to perform. Eight countries have qualified in 2010(7th), 2011(1st), 2013(6th), 2014(3rd), 2017(10th), 2018(7th) and 2019(3rd) and 2021(2nd).

9. Cyprus

Cyprus is represented by Andromache and the song “Ela”.

Based on statistics, it is a moderate place, only six countries have qualified from ninth place 2009(8th), 2013(2nd), 2015(3rd), 2016(4th), 2018(4th) and 2021(8th).

10. Ireland

Brooke will perform the song “That’s Rich” for Ireland.

Statistically, it is not that good of a place, only five countries have qualified from ninth place, in 2008(6th), 2010(4th), 2014(5th), 2015(2nd), 2016(1st).

11. North Macedonia

Andrea will represent North Macedonia with the song “Circles”.

Based on statistics, it is a moderate place, only seven countries have qualified from 11th place in 2008(4th), 2012(1st), 2013(7th), 2015(10th), 2017(8th), 2019(8th) and 2021(10th).

12. Estonia

Stefan will sing “Hope” for Estonia.

Based on statistics, it is a moderate place, only seven countries have qualified from 12th place in 2009(2nd), 2010(9th), 2013(8th), 2014(4th), 2016(5th), 2017(5th) and 2021(4th).

13. Romania

WRS with the song “Llámame”, is going to perform in the best possible position in this semi-final.

Based on statistics, it is a great place. Only three countries have not qualified in 201, 2016 and 2017.

Ten countries have qualified to the final in 2008(3rd), 2009(4th), 2011(3rd), 2012(5th), 2013(3rd), 2014(7th), 2015(1st), 2018(10th), 2019(6th) and 2021(3rd).

14. Poland

Ochman is going to sing “River” for Poland.

Statistically, it is greatly favored as 14th place counts inly three non-qualifications in 2013, 2015, 2018.

From this place, ten countries have been in the final in 2008(5th). 2009(9th), 2010(10th), 2011(4th), 2012(4th), 2014(10th), 2016(2nd), 2017(9th), 2019(9th) and 2021(5th)

15. Montenegro

Vladana represents the country with the song “Breathe”

Performing 15th counts five non-qualifications in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2021.

From this place, eight countries have been in the final in 2009(9th), 2011(9th), 2013(10th), 2014(2nd), 2015(2nd), 2017(1st), 2018(2nd), 2019(7th).

16. Belgium

Belgium’s representative is Jérémie Makiese with the song “Miss You”.

Based on statistics, performing sixteenth is a great place, as seven countries qualified, in 2009(7th), 2010(3rd), 2012(10th), 2015(5th), 2016(9th), 2019(1st) and 2021(1st), and five have not.

17. Sweden

Cornelia Jakobs will perform “Hold Me Closer”.

Based on statistics, it is a great place to perform. Five countries have not qualified in 2008, 2011, 2016, 2017 and in 2021, while seven have been in the final

The places that the countries got by performing seventeenth in the semi-final are: 2009(6th), 2010(1st)*, 2012(6th), 2013(5th)*, 2015(8th)*, 2018(8th), 2019(2nd).

*Seventeenth place was the last in those years.

18. Czech Republic

The semi-final will be over with the performance of We Are Domi and the song “Lights Off”.

Statistically it is the best place in the second semi-final. Only North Macedonia have not qualified in 2008, having placed 10th but not getting the wildcard of the juries.

The places that the countries got by performing eighteenth in the semi-final are: 2009(3rd), 2011(2nd), 2012(3rd), 2016(3rd), 2017(3rd), 2018(6th) and 2019 (5th).

Conclusion

If we had to divide the countries in three groups (Favored, 50-50, not favored), statistically, those will be

Favored:

Czech Republic 6/7
Poland 10/13
Romania 10/13
Finland 9/13
Azerbaijan 8/13
Australia 8/13
Malta 8/13
Montenegro 8/13

50-50:

San Marino 7/13
Belgium 7/12
North Macedonia 7/13
Estonia 7/13
Sweden 7/12
Cyprus 6/13
Israel 6/13

Not Favored

Ireland 5/13
Georgia 4/13
Serbia 4/13

Below is a video made by one of our editors featuring the ranking of the countries of the Second Semi-Final based on the average number of placings received by each entry, separately for each order of appearance:

The second part of our analysis is over. Stay tuned on Eurovisionfun for all the news regarding Eurovision Song Contest 2022 in Turin, Italy!

Don’t forget to Vote in our poll! For the First Semi-final you vote HERE and for the Second Semi-final you vote HERE.