Bets: The latest odds before the rehearsals!

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We are two days away from the start of the rehearsals in Malmö and that’s why one of Eurovisionfun‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with the Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

As you prepare for the pivotal days ahead with the climax of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest celebrations, the bookers are already getting down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already on offer across all bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next contest.

The five that became four

A battle for four seems to be shaping up in this year’s contest, with Switzerland, Croatia, the Netherlands and Italy having a distinct lead over their pursuers and Ukraine ‘losing ground’ recently after the parties.

More specifically, at the top, now having a clear lead over its competitors, is Switzerland. With two 24 hours to go until the start of rehearsals in the Swedish south, Nemo‘s “The Code” starts from pole-position to win Switzerland‘s coveted third victory in its almost 70-year presence in the Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3.1, becoming the first to break the triple barrier this year.

In second place remains Croatia, who have been firmly established in the top two of the betting tables for the past two months, with their odds remaining largely stable after this year’s pre-parties. Baby Lasagna and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” will go all the way for a maiden Croatian victory, with bookers offering odds of between 3.25 and 4.6.

The absolute hit on Western and Central European radios, the Netherlands, continues its rally up the betting tables. Joost Klein‘s “Europapa” has made an impression and is sweeping the charts and streams across much of the Old Continent, now bringing the Netherlands into fourth place. We told you long ago through this column about the dynamics of this entry, which was one of the dark horses of this year’s contest. Now in third place and offered at odds of between 4.25 and 5.5, it is anything but a dark horse, with betting companies recognising its potential and moving it up two places.

Fourth, with a slightly downward trend, but within a fairly close distance of the three leading countries, is Italy. Angelina Mango with “La Noia” may have lost one place compared to our last analysis, nevertheless the chances of a second Italian victory in this decade are highly respected. Between 5.75 and 7.5 is offered for Italian victory for those who believe in Angelina Mango‘s potential.

The top five is now completed by Ukraine, who have lost the momentum they had at the beginning of this year’s Eurovision season when they were considered the early favourites to win in Malmö. With the gap between the four leading countries having widened, bookers are offering Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil’s victory at the highest odds we have seen offered during this year’s Eurovision season. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 8.5 and 17.

Top 10

With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place, France has quietly risen to sixth, and has consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane, with France gaining one place in the last few days.

Among the gainers in recent weeks is Israel, which has moved up to seventh place. Eden Golan and “Hurricane” have gained four places in the last period, steadily gaining momentum as evidenced by the reactions she is garnering on social media on the official Eurovision account. Israel’s victory is offered at odds between 21 and 36.

Greece is still in eighth place. The “tailwind” after the release of Marina Satti‘s “ZARI” brought our country inside the Top 10, with Greece now stabilizing within it and having a safety margin over its pursuers.

Marina Satti‘s win is currently being played at odds between 21 and 41, slightly higher compared to our last analysis, with bookers, however, giving a vote of confidence to the Greek entry.

The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have now moved up to ninth place, being five places higher compared to our last analysis. Up to 51 times the stake is returned on Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“.

Rounding out the top ten is Belgium, who have been the disappointment so far this Eurovision season. Mustii‘s pre-party performances with his mildly unacceptable rendition of “Before the Party’s Over” has brought Belgium into tenth place, showing a drop of four places compared to our last analysis. Belgium’s victory is currently being bet on odds between 26 and 67.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg

Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!

Eurovision 2024: More “flexibility” for the producers to determine the Grand Final running order!

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The 68th Eurovision Song Contest introduces a significant change in how the Grand Final running order is determined. Artists now have more options, with a new category introduced to give producers greater flexibility in shaping the lineup.

In March, it was announced that Malmö would see some major changes to enhance the Eurovision Song Contest‘s excitement. Following the revelation that the “Big 5” would perform their songs in full during the Semi-Finals and that fans could start voting as soon as the first artist hits the stage in the Grand Final, another significant change has emerged!

In recent years, qualifying countries from the Semi-Finals and the Big 5 have randomly selected which half of the Grand Final they will perform in. Subsequently, the show’s producers decided where within the First Half (songs 1 to 13) or Second Half (songs 14 to 26) of the Grand Final those acts would perform.

This year, a new category called “Producer’s Choice” will be introduced.

Host broadcaster SVT revealed that 25 of the 26 artists in the Grand Final (Sweden already has position 1) will have the option to choose First Half, Second Half, or Producer’s Choice through a random draw.

If an artist selects Producer’s Choice, the show producers will have the discretion to place that song anywhere in either the First or Second Half of the running order.

This change means there will be 6 slots available to pick in the First Half of the running order, 6 slots in the Second Half, and 13 Producer’s Choice slots.

The purpose of this change is to provide producers with more opportunities to ensure all songs in the Grand Final stand out and to create the most dynamic running order possible.

Christer Björkman, this year’s Contest Producer, elaborated on the rationale behind the change:

“It’s all about creating the best TV show possible and giving all artists a chance to shine. Adding the flexibility of Producer’s Choice allows me to create an even better flow of different tempos and an even more thrilling Grand Final.”

The Big 5 will select either First Half, Second Half, or Producer’s Choice after their second Rehearsal on Saturday, May 4, live during a Reddit AMA. Then, each of the 10 qualifiers from the First Semi-Final on Tuesday, May 7, will draw one of those three options live on the Official Eurovision Song Contest TikTok channel immediately after the show.

The 10 qualifying artists from the Second Semi-Final will draw from the remaining options live on TikTok after the show ends on Thursday, May 9.

Once all 25 options are chosen, producers will compile the running order for the Grand Final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest in the early hours of Friday, May 10. It will then be revealed on the Contest’s website and social media channels.

The last time such a change to the running order was made was also in Malmö, in 2013.

Before 2013, the running order of the Grand Final was determined via a random draw. However, in 2013, host broadcaster SVT initiated a change to create a more entertaining evening of television for viewers. This format has remained in place every year since, with the introduction of the Producer’s Choice element in 2024 being the first major change in over a decade.

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest developments!

Source: Eurovision.tv

The Model: Predicted Results for Eurovision 2024!

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The Model is a project by Eurovoix aimed at predicting the results of the Eurovision contest, based on betting odds, fan voting online, app usage, song views and streamings on electronic platforms, historical voting patterns, and even the position in the running order. It also takes into account other external factors such as political developments that could influence the outcome, or the nationality of an artist.

As the computational prediction model is constructed based on contemporary data, which dynamically change during the pre-party period, its recently updated version predicts Switzerland as the winner instead of Italy.

Ukraine and The Netherlands continue to be the winners of the two semi-finals, while in this edition, Greece and Cyprus also advance to the final, both with an upward trajectory.

First Semi-Final Scoreboard

Second Semi-Final Scoreboard

The change observed here is the qualification of Georgia for the Grand Final and the displacement of Denmark among the non-qualifiers. Clearly, Nutsa Buzaladze’s outstanding performance at the London Eurovision Party last weekend won over the fans and gave a boost to the Georgian entry.

Final Scoreboard

Perhaps the most challenging in terms of prediction, the voting outcome crowns Switzerland as the big winner of Eurovision 2024. According to this computational model, Greece will finish 13th (10th in both televoting and juries), while Cyprus will place 19th (21st with the juries and 16th in the televote).

What do you think of The Model’s results? Will they be confirmed in May? Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the updates!

Source: eurovoix.com

London Eurovision Party 2024: Watch the performances of the artists!

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One more pre-party took place last night. After two parties on Spain, one taking place last week in Madrid and Saturday’s party in Barcelona, it was time for the British party to take place in London.

Read more

Bets: The first odds for advancing to the final!

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Just over three weeks separate us from the start of rehearsals in Malmö ahead of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. As we head into the final stretch just before Eurovision 2024 takes place in the Swedish city, one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with our Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

With bookmakers having started to offer more betting sections for the upcoming contest in recent hours, we take a look at the qualification odds for this year’s Eurovision grand final from the two semi-finals on May 7 and 9.

First semi-final

The first semi-final on May 7 is expected to be particularly competitive, according to the bookers. With just three companies offering the possibility of qualifying for Saturday’s grand final so far, the sample may be small, but it is still largely representative of what we will see on Tuesday’s show.

Four countries are considered by the betting companies to be guaranteed to qualify for the grand final of this year’s competition. Croatia, Ukraine, Finland and Lithuania are offered at odds of under 1.05, a big gap compared to the other eleven participating countries in this semi-final.

Particularly increased chances of qualifying for the grand final are given by bookers to Luxembourg, Cyprus, Serbia and Poland. The group of these countries is being played at odds between 1.25 and 1.33, which translates betting-wise into a qualification probability of over 70% for three of them(Cyprus, Serbia, Poland) and over 80% for Luxembourg in its return to Eurovision after more than three decades.

A battle is expected to be waged for the last two tickets to the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, where four countries are expected to fight for their place in the contest. Slovenia, Portugal, Australia and Ireland are being played at odds of between 1.44 and 1.75, with the former two currently looking like the frontrunners to get past the first semi-final hurdle, with all of them having more than a 53% chance of qualifying.

Finally, regarding the remaining three countries in the first semi-final, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, betting companies see them as the big underdogs for qualification. With regard to Azerbaijan, their chances of qualification are far from negligible, as they are offered odds of more than doubling, approaching 2.25. In contrast, Moldova and Iceland seem to have little chance of making it to the final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, with Moldova being offered odds of between 3 and 3.75, while Iceland is offered odds of between 3 and 5.2.

Second semi-final

Things seem to be clearer in the second semi-final regarding the chances of the sixteen participating countries qualifying for the grand final on 11 May. The countries taking part in the second semi-final appear to be divided by the bookers into five sub-groups.

The first sub-group is made up of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium. The three Central and Western European countries, which occupy three of the top six places in the odds of winning this year’s competition, are considered by bookmakers to be certain to qualify, which is why their odds of qualification are no more than 1.02.

All five countries in the second sub-group seem largely certain to qualify. Greece, Norway, Israel, Armenia and Austria are offered odds of between 1.04 and 1.2, which translates into qualification odds of 85% for Greece, 83% for Norway, 82% for Israel and Armenia and 81% for Estonia.

A “category” on its own is Estonia, whose qualification to the grand final is considered the most likely scenario, with bookers giving them around 70% odds and playing at odds between 1.28 and 1.33.

Georgia and Denmark are set to battle it out for the final ticket, with Georgia and Denmark both distancing themselves from the leading nine countries and the remaining five in the running. At odds of around 1.75, Georgia ‘s qualification is being played at odds of between 1.67 and 2.22, with bookies giving 52% odds to the Caucasians and 49% to the Scandinavians.

Finally, the last sub-group is the remaining five countries that will take part in the second semi-final on May 9. Latvia, Albania, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic are considered by bookers as the underdogs to qualify for the Eurovision 2024 final, as all of them have odds between 27% and 35% and are offered at odds that return around three times the initial stake.

In any case, with the pre-parties continuing in the coming weeks and with the start of rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest less than a month away, the only thing that is certain is that the shake-up will continue and will culminate as the days for the big celebration in Malmö approach. Competition is fierce and all possibilities are open.

Which countries do you think will qualify for the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments!

Eurovision 2024: The running order of the semifinals has been revealed!

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With a month and a half to go until the first Eurovision 2024 semi-final on 7 May, the EBU today announced the order of the semi-final line-up.

The order of appearance was determined by the EBU in cooperation with the Swedish organisers, taking into account which place each country was drawn to perform (first or second), but also in a way that the show would be more interesting.

The official Eurovision YouTube channel announced a few minutes ago the official order of appearance of the songs in the semi-finals of this year’s contest.

It is worth noting that this year is the first year in which the Big 5 and the host country, Sweden, are going to perform their songs live in the two semi-finals. So, among the competing countries in the two semi-finals, we will see Germany, Sweden and the UK as guest stars in the first semi-final, while in the second semi-final we’ll see France, Italy and Spain.

Running Order

Semi-final 1 – Tuesday 7 May

  1. Cyprus
  2. Serbia
  3. Lithuania
  4. Ireland
    United Kingdom
  5. Ukraine
  6. Poland
  7. Croatia
  8. Iceland
    Germany
  9. Slovenia
  10. Finland
  11. Moldova
    Sweden
  12. Azerbaijan
  13. Australia
  14. Portugal
  15. Luxembourg

Semi-final 2 – Thursday 11 May

  1. Malta
  2. Albania
  3. Greece
  4. Switzerland
  5. Czechia
    France
  6. Austria
  7. Denmark
  8. Armenia
  9. Latvia
    Spain
  10. San Marino
  11. Georgia
  12. Belgium
  13. Estonia
    Italy
  14. Israel
  15. Norway
  16. Netherlands

The analysis from fans and beyond has been on fire for a few minutes now. After the theories based on the countries’ history in the competition, it’s a first insight into how deep the qualification to the final is or isn’t. In other words, it’s time to make our predictions about who will make it to the final and who are favourites to say goodbye to Malmö early…

Malmö will host the 68th Eurovision Song Contest from 7 to 11 May at the Malmö Arena. The motto of this year’s event, as chosen by the organisers, is ‘United by Music’.

Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the developments regarding Eurovision 2024!

Moldova: The viewership of Etapa Națională 2024!

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About a week ago, the national final of Moldova took place, with Natalia Barbu being the winner, and on the same time the country’s representative in Eurovision 2024! Read more

Moldova: TRM responds to Valeria Pasha’s accusations

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Moldovan public television TRM responded to Valeria Pasha’s accusations regarding the results of Etapa Națională, which put her in second place, even though she tied with Natalia Barbu, having won the televote.

TRM has confirmed that the winner of Etapa Națională and representative of Moldova in Eurovision 2024 is Natalia Barbu, despite Valeria Pasha challenging the result.

Valeria Pasha, who performed ‘Anti-Princess’ in the final, won the televote with 4771 votes – almost double that of Natalia Barbu, who came second in the public vote. However, Barbu’s song “In The Middle” won the most points from the jury, with Pasha coming second in this vote.

As a consequence of the above, they tied for first place with 22 points. While in most national finals in the event of a tie, what is done in Eurovision is followed – i.e. the public’s preference prevails, TRM decided to give the first word to the jury, thus giving the victory and representation to Natalia Barbu.

In its relevant announcement, TRM explains how the result in Etapa Națională was achieved:

“Teleradio Moldova” company mentions that in accordance with the regulations of the European Union for Radio and Television, each country is de facto represented by the public broadcaster and it is up to the exclusive discretion of the broadcaster to determine who will represent their country at the Eurovision contest and how to organize the selection .

The Regulation regarding the conduct of the national selection and the appointment of the representative was approved, it was brought to the attention of all competitors registered for the contest.

According to the provisions of the document, by registering for the competition, the contestants confirm that they agree with all the provisions of this regulation and all the conditions established by the Organizing Committee.

Following the voting procedure, the performer Natalia Barbu accumulated 12 points from the professional jury and 10 points from the viewers.

For her part, the performer Valeria Pasha obtained 10 points from the jury and 12 points from the viewers.

After establishing that both artists had accumulated the same score, the Organizing Committee made the decision, in an extraordinary meeting, to designate as the winner the contestant who obtained the highest score from the professional jury.

The decision was adopted according to the Regulation which provides that at any stage of the contest, “Teleradio-Moldova” has the right to decide whether it will organize and conduct the next stage and/or whether it will otherwise designate the representative of the Republic of Moldova at Eurovision.

The organizing committee points out that there were reasonable suspicions from the very beginning regarding televoting, as there were in previous years notifications, including public ones, from some competitors involved in the contest, about attempts to falsify this procedure.

Since last year, “Teleradio-Moldova” has created, with the help of some of its partners, a software dedicated to the Eurovision contest, so that votes can be verified.

The company verified, through its experts and specific procedures, the validity of the numbers from which Valeria Pasha received votes and found that approximately 950 votes came from phone numbers that are currently invalid.

Moreover, a certain number of votes came from 48 countries, including exotic ones – Aruba, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Indonesia or Vietnam, probably using the VPN program.

Moldova participates in the second half of the first semi-final with Natalia Barbu and the song In The Middle. Natalia Barbu returns to the competition stage, 17 years after her previous participation, when with the song Fight she brought her country to tenth place.

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the updates!

Μoldova: Eurovisionfun Reacts to Eurovision 2024 Entry “In the middle”!

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Etapa Națională, the Moldovan selection format for Eurovision 2024, was concluded with Natalia Barbu being crowned  the winner with her song “In the middle” and therefore the country’s representative in Malmö.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jom9sNL5whs&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Feurovisionfun.com%2F&source_ve_path=MjM4NTE&feature=emb_title

The Eurovisionfun team once again watched and reacted to the live performance of the country’s entry for the upcoming Eurovision contest! Enjoy Spyros, Apostolis and Christos in a Reaction video with detailed commentary on Moldova’s participation in Eurovision 2024!

Do you like Moldova’s entry for this year’s Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments below!

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest news about the Eurovision Song Contest!

Moldova: Valeria Pasha disputes the results of Etapa Națională 2024!

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Just a few hours ago Etapa Națională, the Moldovan selection format for Eurovision 2024, was concluded. Following the voting of a national jury along with the public voting, Natalia Barbu was declared the winner with her song “In the middle” and therefore the country’s representative in Malmö.

However, Natalia Barbu’s win was the result of a tie-break. Natalia Barbu and Valeria Pasha tied on the first place, both with a total of 22 points. Pasha won the public’s vote, with receiving almost double the votes in comparison with Barbu who finished in the second place, while Barbu won the jury voting. It was up to the jury to break the tie, which gave the win to Natalia Barbu.

However, Valeria Pasha, the runner-up, as she states on a video posted on her Instagram account, disputes the results of tonight’s selection and has appealed the results of Etapa Națională 2024.

According to Valeria Pasha’s post:

Thank you for your support, I have thousands of messages and shares. 4771 votes – every vote counted for me! But unfortunately, with the score being tied 22/22 – the organisers have decided not to consider your votes and opinion.

We are not trying to blame Natalia Barbu’s team, but we want transparency.

Together with the team, we decided that we will fight for the support provided by you. For each of the 4771 votes. That’s why we’ll contest and bet on your support.

 

Valeria Pasha’s claim has nothing to do with Natalia Barbu personally but wants to ensure the transparency of the process, as the public’s opinion was not considered on the final result.

It is true that there was no information that the jury’s opinion would serve as the tie-breaker on such an occasion.

Anyway, the winner of tonight’s selection was Natalia Barbu with her entry “In the middle“. Barbu will return to the Eurovision stage for the second time, seventeen years following her first participation in Helsinki with “Fight”.

We remind you that Moldova is allocated to perform on the second half of the first semi-final on May 7.

Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the news!