The favourite column of many of you returns, as the betting analyses for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest are back again.
With less than a week to go until the first Eurovision 2024 semi-final and after the fourth day of rehearsals, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.
Top 5
Largely unchanged is the situation at the top of the betting tables, with Nemo and Switzerland seen as the heavy favourites to win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3, with the odds remaining largely stable.
In second place, with more or less the same odds compared to our last analysis a week ago, is Croatia. Baby Lasagna and ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim‘ will go all the way for the Croats’ maiden win, with bookies offering odds of between 3.75 and 4.5.
A short distance behind Croatia is Italy, who have moved back up to third place. A day before the Italian team’s first rehearsal in Malmö, the competition’s performance so far has boosted Angelina Mango‘s chances with “La Noia“, as now at almost all bookmakers the odds of an Italian victory have dropped significantly. Between 5 and 6 is offered for the Italian victory for those who believe in the potential of the talented young performer.
Fourth is currently Ukraine, whose maximum odds of winning are exactly the same as those of the fifth-ranked country, the Netherlands. However, a closer look at the table reveals that almost all bookers agree that the Netherlands‘ rehearsal was probably the worst among the favourites in the contest, which is why they are now offering it at a higher yield.
On the contrary, the momentum is much more favourable for Ukraine, whose first rehearsal was one of the top of the 31 countries taking to the stage for the first time. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 7.5 and 10, while the Netherlands‘ win is currently being bet between 5 and 10.
Top 10
With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place is still France, who have consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane.
In seventh place with a steady upward trend is Israel. Having, admittedly, one of the best rehearsals we have seen so far, Eden Golan and “Hurricane” are on the verge of sixth place and it may be a matter of a few hours before they overtake France. Israel‘s win is offered at odds between 15 and 21, down by almost half on our last analysis.
Eighth-placed Greece are among the winners in the early rehearsals. Marina Satti‘s very good rehearsal has brought down Greece’s odds of victory at most of the betting companies. Thus, now a possible victory of “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 21 and 34, slightly lower compared to our analysis before the first rehearsals.
The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have remained firmly in ninth place over the last week. As many as 67 times the stakes are returned for Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“, with bookers’ opinions divided over the fate of this entry more than any other Eurovision 2024 song.
A “new entry” in the top ten is now Norway, which took advantage of the fall of Belgium and Lithuania, climbing into the Top 10 after more than two months inside the Top 10. Should Gåte win this year’s Eurovision with “Ulveham“, people who bet on them will get up to 101 times their money back.
First semi-final
As part of this analysis, we will also take a first look at the odds of qualifying for the grand final. We start with the first semi-final, whose participating countries took to the stage of Malmö Arena for the second time today and will return on Monday for the rehearsals of the shows.
Four countries are considered a given to qualify, with Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Finland offered by bookers at odds of under 1.10. It is telling that the odds on the top four countries in particular return almost nothing to those who bet on them. For example, in the event that someone bets ten euros on their qualification, they will only make a profit of fifty euro cents on the best one.
The countries following the top four countries also seem to have a very big chance of qualifying for the grand final. Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland have over 80% chances of qualifying, with their eventual qualification being bet at odds of close to 1.20-1.25.
Poland seem to be in a league of their own, seen as the eighth favourite to qualify for the grand final on May 11. Luna‘s qualification is offered at odds of around 1.30-1.36, with a clear distance between them and both the leading and trailing countries.
A battle is expected for the last two tickets to Saturday’s grand final, with four countries battling it out. Serbia have the edge over that group of four countries, with bookers offering any qualification for Teya Dora close to 1.5. Portugal and Australia are next, both being played at exactly the same odds, between 1.5 and 1.73, with bookmakers unable to give either country a qualification advantage.
Less likely compared to the aforementioned countries is Slovenia, whose eventual qualification, despite being seen as the 12th seed to qualify from this semi-final, returns less than 2 times the stake. One understands that the differences between them are marginal and, therefore, qualification will be decided on the margin.
The following countries, namely Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, are considered less likely to qualify. More chances of qualification for the Azeris are being played between 2.38 and 3.25, with bookers not ruling out the surprise. Conversely, Moldova and Iceland are far and away in the bottom two spots having the least chance of qualification.
Second semi-final
Regarding the second semi-final, things seem to be clearer. Sixteen countries are involved in this semi-final, with ten of them being played at odds of less than 2. You can see how bookers seem to have easily settled on the top ten that will qualify for the final.
Switzerland, Netherlands, Greece, Greece, Norway, Armenia and Israel are seen by bookmakers as certain to qualify, with their qualification returning up to 1.1 times the stake. It is understandable that with six out of ten countries being taken for granted to qualify for Saturday’s grand final, things become more difficult for the remaining ten.
Much the same is true of Belgium, Austria and Estonia, with bookies offering the possibility of them making the final of this year’s competition between 1.20 and 1.28.
Rounding out the top ten is tenth-placed Georgia, who are in a league of their own and it looks like it’s time to break their negative streak of exclusions since 2016. At odds of between 1.33 and 1.4, Georgia are on offer, with the possibility of qualification being the most prevalent.
And we move on to the other six semi-final countries, which are considered by bookies as underdogs for qualification. Clearly more likely are Denmark and Albania, who should be considered anything but out of the running, with their qualification odds at close to 2.40 and 2.75 respectively.
Finally, Latvia, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic seem to be “boiling in the same pot”, whose qualification quadruples, quintuples and sixfold the stakes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg
Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!
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