2023 has been history since a few hours ago and Eurovisionfun welcomes 2024 with one of its most loved and talked about columns, with the betting analyses for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest kicking off for 2024.
While you’re still in the mood for your Christmas holidays and getting ready for a ‘hot’ Eurovision winter, bookers are already getting down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already being offered to some bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next contest.
Derby at the top
Clearly influenced by the current geopolitical reality, as well as the performance of the last few years, one could describe the setting in the top five. On the basis of the figures so far, Ukraine and the United Kingdom are joint top, with the 2022 winner offered at odds between 7 and 8, while last year’s host is at odds of between 6.5 and 8.
Clearly, there is a telling difference between the odds offered for Ukraine and the UK. On the one hand, Ukraine’s odds are clearly influenced by the ongoing Russian invasion in the Eastern European country for two years now and the sympathy for the Ukrainian people as manifested in the televoting of the last two contests. On the other hand, the UK’s odds are explained by the announcement of Olly Alexander as the country’s representative in Malmö alongside the long-standing tendency of British fans to bet on the much-coveted sixth win in the Contest.
In third place, but with exactly the same odds as Ukraine, we find another country with a tradition in the contest that is, at the same time, in a state of war, Israel. Up to eight times the money to be placed on it would be returned by Israel’s fifth victory, with bookers clearly influenced by what is happening in Gaza and “suspecting” a similar surge of support for Israel’s participation, similar to what happened in the last two years in the case of Ukraine.
Nine times the stakes return a potential victory of one of the major powers of the last decade in the contest, Italy. The amazing tradition of the last few years, together with the strong line-up of the upcoming Sanremo Festival largely explain the betting companies’ confidence in the southern European powerhouse.
Of course, the top five could not but be completed by the multiple winner (together with Ireland) of the Eurovision Song Contest, Sweden. The Eurovision 2024 host is rightly seen as one of the heavy favourites to win in Malmö, with SVT’s decision-makers and Swedish Eurofans wanting more than anything for the historic eighth win to take place on Swedish soil. A home win for Sweden is offered at odds between 8 and 11.
Top 10
In sixth place in the betting tables is Norway, which is being played at odds of around 15, being one of the most respected figures in our favourite contest, with Eurofans eagerly awaiting the Melodi Grand Prix 2024 which will start next Saturday.
Spain is seventh, just behind sixth place. Bookers are still relying on the positive momentum the Spanish delegation carries from Chanel‘s huge success in Turin a year and a half ago and despite the fact that the song release of the upcoming Benidorm Fest 2024 did not excite, they are still offering Spain within the top ten.
In eighth place one finds Switzerland, whose odds have plummeted in the last week to bring them into the top 10, whereas until recently they were close to 20th place. The Swiss delegation leader’s post that the Central European country will not be sending a male ballad to Malmo seems to have prompted many to bet on Switzerland, apparently bearing in mind the last time that didn’t happen, in 2019, when Luca Hänni’s “She Got Me” placed fourth in Tel Aviv.
In ninth place, and for the first time during the current Eurovision season, one meets Greece. After the disastrous performance in Liverpool, Marina Satti‘s name and the momentum that the selection sends out to a big name in the Greek music scene seems to return the shaken confidence of the bookers towards the once powerhouse. It is quite possible that the appearance of the Greek representative in Syntagma Square for the change of the year has brought about this “tailwind” in the odds circulating in the bookmakers for Greece‘s victory in Malmo. The Greek victory is being played at odds between 13 and 21, being lower than at the same time last year.
The top ten is completed by France. The Western European country is one of three countries that have so far revealed their songs for Eurovision 2024, along with Czechia and Albania. However, Slimane‘s “Mon amour” is in a significantly better position than the other two entries, with bookers cautiously optimistic and keeping France within the Top 10. Up to 21 times the stake is returned on a potential French win, which is being played at similar odds to Greece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BE2Fj0W4jP4
Do you think the betting companies’ intuition will be confirmed for another year or will there be a surprise winner that no one expects? Tell us in the comments! From us wishes for a creative year, with health, happiness and lots of Eurovision.
Måns Zelmerlöw – “Heroes”– Sweden 2015
Iru – “Echo” – Georgia 2023
Victor Vernicos – “What They Say” – Greece 2023
THE BUSKER – “Dance (Our Own Party)” – Malta 2023
Eleni Foureira – “Fuego” – Cyprus 2018
Barbara Pravi – “Voilà” – France 2021
Subwoolfer – ”Give That Wolf A Banana” – Norway 2022
Sergey Lazarev – “You Are The Only One” – Russia 2016
Sunstroke Project & Olia Tira – “Run Away” – Moldova 2010
Mia Nicolai & Dion Cooper – “Burning Daylight” – Netherlands 2023
maNga – “We Could Be The Same” – Türkiye 2010
Lordi – “Hard Rock Hallelujah” – Finland 2006
Monika Linkytė – “Stay” – Lithuania 2023
Lena – “Satellite” – Germany 2010
Voyager – “Promise” – Australia 2023
Alika – “Bridges” – Estonia 2023
Remo Forrer – “Watergun” – Switzerland 2023
Luiz Ejlli – “Zjarr E Ftohtë” – Albania 2006
