Bets: The latest odds before the rehearsals!

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We are two days away from the start of the rehearsals in Malmö and that’s why one of Eurovisionfun‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with the Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

As you prepare for the pivotal days ahead with the climax of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest celebrations, the bookers are already getting down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already on offer across all bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next contest.

The five that became four

A battle for four seems to be shaping up in this year’s contest, with Switzerland, Croatia, the Netherlands and Italy having a distinct lead over their pursuers and Ukraine ‘losing ground’ recently after the parties.

More specifically, at the top, now having a clear lead over its competitors, is Switzerland. With two 24 hours to go until the start of rehearsals in the Swedish south, Nemo‘s “The Code” starts from pole-position to win Switzerland‘s coveted third victory in its almost 70-year presence in the Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3.1, becoming the first to break the triple barrier this year.

In second place remains Croatia, who have been firmly established in the top two of the betting tables for the past two months, with their odds remaining largely stable after this year’s pre-parties. Baby Lasagna and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” will go all the way for a maiden Croatian victory, with bookers offering odds of between 3.25 and 4.6.

The absolute hit on Western and Central European radios, the Netherlands, continues its rally up the betting tables. Joost Klein‘s “Europapa” has made an impression and is sweeping the charts and streams across much of the Old Continent, now bringing the Netherlands into fourth place. We told you long ago through this column about the dynamics of this entry, which was one of the dark horses of this year’s contest. Now in third place and offered at odds of between 4.25 and 5.5, it is anything but a dark horse, with betting companies recognising its potential and moving it up two places.

Fourth, with a slightly downward trend, but within a fairly close distance of the three leading countries, is Italy. Angelina Mango with “La Noia” may have lost one place compared to our last analysis, nevertheless the chances of a second Italian victory in this decade are highly respected. Between 5.75 and 7.5 is offered for Italian victory for those who believe in Angelina Mango‘s potential.

The top five is now completed by Ukraine, who have lost the momentum they had at the beginning of this year’s Eurovision season when they were considered the early favourites to win in Malmö. With the gap between the four leading countries having widened, bookers are offering Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil’s victory at the highest odds we have seen offered during this year’s Eurovision season. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 8.5 and 17.

Top 10

With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place, France has quietly risen to sixth, and has consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane, with France gaining one place in the last few days.

Among the gainers in recent weeks is Israel, which has moved up to seventh place. Eden Golan and “Hurricane” have gained four places in the last period, steadily gaining momentum as evidenced by the reactions she is garnering on social media on the official Eurovision account. Israel’s victory is offered at odds between 21 and 36.

Greece is still in eighth place. The “tailwind” after the release of Marina Satti‘s “ZARI” brought our country inside the Top 10, with Greece now stabilizing within it and having a safety margin over its pursuers.

Marina Satti‘s win is currently being played at odds between 21 and 41, slightly higher compared to our last analysis, with bookers, however, giving a vote of confidence to the Greek entry.

The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have now moved up to ninth place, being five places higher compared to our last analysis. Up to 51 times the stake is returned on Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“.

Rounding out the top ten is Belgium, who have been the disappointment so far this Eurovision season. Mustii‘s pre-party performances with his mildly unacceptable rendition of “Before the Party’s Over” has brought Belgium into tenth place, showing a drop of four places compared to our last analysis. Belgium’s victory is currently being bet on odds between 26 and 67.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg

Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!

Watch the performances of Lithuania and Poland in “A Little Bit More”!

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Just like last year, some time before the first rehearsals of the countries, the show called “A Little Bit More” aired on the official Eurovision YouTube channel.

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Norway: Poland Wins Adresse Malmø Show Two!

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NRK broadcasts Adresse Malmø, a special show dedicated to the Eurovision Song Contest. Each week approximately eight songs will be reviewed with the judges rating the songs from one to twelve points.

Performer Staysman ansd Einar Tørnquist joined the show as guests for the second episode on the main jury. The People’s Jury features Hansi Tryggvasson (42) from Bærum/Iceland, Simen Formo Hay (31) from Oslo and Synne Eikenes Sørensen (17) from Larvik.

Luna from Poland has won the second episode of the Norwegian preview show for the Eurovision Song Contest 2024.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhvDkF9XZx0&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Feurovisionfun.com%2F&source_ve_path=MjM4NTE&feature=emb_title

The results were as follows:

  1. Poland – Luna – “The Tower” – 80 points (6+12+12+12+6+10+12+10)
  2. Austria – Kaleen – “We Will Rave” – 56 points (10+1+12+8+8+2+10+5)
  3. Germany – Isaak – “Always on the Run” – 55 points (4+6+8+10+6+10+5+7)
  4. Estonia – 5miinust & Puuluup – “(Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi” – 53 points – 10+3+2+5+12+12+2+7
  5. Belgium – Mustii – “Before the Party’s Over” – 53 points – 4+6+5+5+8+1+12+12
  6. Iceland – Hera Björk – “Scared of Heights” – 46 points (4+5+5+4+10+12+1+5)
  7. Moldova – Natalia Barbu – “In the Middle” – 31 points – 8+4+3+2+3+7+2+2

The schedule of Adresse Malmø is as follows:

Show Three – Friday 19 April
Presenter Thomas Numme and comedian and radio personality Tara Lina Shahin are part of the main jury for the third episode. The fan jury includes Drian Vad Flaaten (from Tønsberg, Norway), Victoria Haugan Saur (from Sunndal, Norway) and Alex Snyder from Vikersund/USA and reveal their score. Among the countries to be rated by the juries are France, Denmark and Ireland.

Show Four – Friday 5th April
Music journalist Sandeep Singh and host of Eurovision 2010 and Eurovision Young Dancers 2011 Erik Solbakken are part of the judging panel. Eva Nodeland (from Elverum, Norway), Øystein Antonsen (from Arendal, Norway) and Omid Rashidi (from Visby, Norway) are part of the fan jury. Among the countries to be rated by the juries are Switzerland, Finland and Italy.

Show Five – Friday 3rd May
In the last episode of Adresse Malmø we will see Are Kalvø and Ingebjørg Bratland join the main jury. The fan jury consists of Marko Stojiljkovic (from Serbia), Jon Arne Ravndal (from Oslo) and Anna Lycke (from Nannestad/Sweden). Among the countries to be rated by the judging panels are Croatia, Greece and Sweden.

You can watch the show on NRK Player here.

Enjoy again our reaction video to “Tower” below:

source: NRK

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the news about Eurovision 2024!

Eurovision 2024: More “flexibility” for the producers to determine the Grand Final running order!

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The 68th Eurovision Song Contest introduces a significant change in how the Grand Final running order is determined. Artists now have more options, with a new category introduced to give producers greater flexibility in shaping the lineup.

In March, it was announced that Malmö would see some major changes to enhance the Eurovision Song Contest‘s excitement. Following the revelation that the “Big 5” would perform their songs in full during the Semi-Finals and that fans could start voting as soon as the first artist hits the stage in the Grand Final, another significant change has emerged!

In recent years, qualifying countries from the Semi-Finals and the Big 5 have randomly selected which half of the Grand Final they will perform in. Subsequently, the show’s producers decided where within the First Half (songs 1 to 13) or Second Half (songs 14 to 26) of the Grand Final those acts would perform.

This year, a new category called “Producer’s Choice” will be introduced.

Host broadcaster SVT revealed that 25 of the 26 artists in the Grand Final (Sweden already has position 1) will have the option to choose First Half, Second Half, or Producer’s Choice through a random draw.

If an artist selects Producer’s Choice, the show producers will have the discretion to place that song anywhere in either the First or Second Half of the running order.

This change means there will be 6 slots available to pick in the First Half of the running order, 6 slots in the Second Half, and 13 Producer’s Choice slots.

The purpose of this change is to provide producers with more opportunities to ensure all songs in the Grand Final stand out and to create the most dynamic running order possible.

Christer Björkman, this year’s Contest Producer, elaborated on the rationale behind the change:

“It’s all about creating the best TV show possible and giving all artists a chance to shine. Adding the flexibility of Producer’s Choice allows me to create an even better flow of different tempos and an even more thrilling Grand Final.”

The Big 5 will select either First Half, Second Half, or Producer’s Choice after their second Rehearsal on Saturday, May 4, live during a Reddit AMA. Then, each of the 10 qualifiers from the First Semi-Final on Tuesday, May 7, will draw one of those three options live on the Official Eurovision Song Contest TikTok channel immediately after the show.

The 10 qualifying artists from the Second Semi-Final will draw from the remaining options live on TikTok after the show ends on Thursday, May 9.

Once all 25 options are chosen, producers will compile the running order for the Grand Final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest in the early hours of Friday, May 10. It will then be revealed on the Contest’s website and social media channels.

The last time such a change to the running order was made was also in Malmö, in 2013.

Before 2013, the running order of the Grand Final was determined via a random draw. However, in 2013, host broadcaster SVT initiated a change to create a more entertaining evening of television for viewers. This format has remained in place every year since, with the introduction of the Producer’s Choice element in 2024 being the first major change in over a decade.

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest developments!

Source: Eurovision.tv

The Model: Predicted Results for Eurovision 2024!

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The Model is a project by Eurovoix aimed at predicting the results of the Eurovision contest, based on betting odds, fan voting online, app usage, song views and streamings on electronic platforms, historical voting patterns, and even the position in the running order. It also takes into account other external factors such as political developments that could influence the outcome, or the nationality of an artist.

As the computational prediction model is constructed based on contemporary data, which dynamically change during the pre-party period, its recently updated version predicts Switzerland as the winner instead of Italy.

Ukraine and The Netherlands continue to be the winners of the two semi-finals, while in this edition, Greece and Cyprus also advance to the final, both with an upward trajectory.

First Semi-Final Scoreboard

Second Semi-Final Scoreboard

The change observed here is the qualification of Georgia for the Grand Final and the displacement of Denmark among the non-qualifiers. Clearly, Nutsa Buzaladze’s outstanding performance at the London Eurovision Party last weekend won over the fans and gave a boost to the Georgian entry.

Final Scoreboard

Perhaps the most challenging in terms of prediction, the voting outcome crowns Switzerland as the big winner of Eurovision 2024. According to this computational model, Greece will finish 13th (10th in both televoting and juries), while Cyprus will place 19th (21st with the juries and 16th in the televote).

What do you think of The Model’s results? Will they be confirmed in May? Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the updates!

Source: eurovoix.com

OGAE Poll 2024: The results from Poland!

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For every year since 2007, OGAE International conducts the OGAE Poll, which includes the votes of its members from 42 different countries. After eight countries have voted, it is now Poland’s turn to cast its votes.

In detail, the 207 members of OGAE Poland voted as following:

  • 12 points to Switzerland
  • 10 points to Italy
  • 8 points to Belgium
  • 7 points to Ukraine
  • 6 points to Croatia
  • 5 points to Lithuania
  • 4 points to Norway
  • 3 points to Greece
  • 2 points to Spain
  • 1 point to the United Kingdom

The results following the votes of nine countries are the following:

Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the news!

Source: OGAE International

Listen to the acoustic version of Poland’s and Portugal’s entries, in “A Little Bit More”!

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Just like last year, some time before the first rehearsals of the countries, the show called “A Little Bit More” aired on the official Eurovision YouTube channel.

So, for all this time before the rehearsals, Eurovision TV will upload different performances of the artists, like different versions of their songs, or covers of songs from other artists.

In the videos below, you can listen to the acoustic versions of Poland’s entry, “The Tower’‘ by Luna and Portugal’s entry, “Grito” by Iolanda performed in the National Pantheon of Lisbon:

https://youtu.be/IBD32BF3qUQ

https://youtu.be/A1iiLI1XM4Q

You can also watch the Eurovisionfun team reacting and commenting to the Polish and Portuguese entries in Eurovision 2024:

Stay tuned on Eurovisionfun for all the news regarding the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, in Malmö!

London Eurovision Party 2024: Watch the performances of the artists!

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One more pre-party took place last night. After two parties on Spain, one taking place last week in Madrid and Saturday’s party in Barcelona, it was time for the British party to take place in London.

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Bets: The first odds for advancing to the final!

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Just over three weeks separate us from the start of rehearsals in Malmö ahead of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. As we head into the final stretch just before Eurovision 2024 takes place in the Swedish city, one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with our Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

With bookmakers having started to offer more betting sections for the upcoming contest in recent hours, we take a look at the qualification odds for this year’s Eurovision grand final from the two semi-finals on May 7 and 9.

First semi-final

The first semi-final on May 7 is expected to be particularly competitive, according to the bookers. With just three companies offering the possibility of qualifying for Saturday’s grand final so far, the sample may be small, but it is still largely representative of what we will see on Tuesday’s show.

Four countries are considered by the betting companies to be guaranteed to qualify for the grand final of this year’s competition. Croatia, Ukraine, Finland and Lithuania are offered at odds of under 1.05, a big gap compared to the other eleven participating countries in this semi-final.

Particularly increased chances of qualifying for the grand final are given by bookers to Luxembourg, Cyprus, Serbia and Poland. The group of these countries is being played at odds between 1.25 and 1.33, which translates betting-wise into a qualification probability of over 70% for three of them(Cyprus, Serbia, Poland) and over 80% for Luxembourg in its return to Eurovision after more than three decades.

A battle is expected to be waged for the last two tickets to the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, where four countries are expected to fight for their place in the contest. Slovenia, Portugal, Australia and Ireland are being played at odds of between 1.44 and 1.75, with the former two currently looking like the frontrunners to get past the first semi-final hurdle, with all of them having more than a 53% chance of qualifying.

Finally, regarding the remaining three countries in the first semi-final, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, betting companies see them as the big underdogs for qualification. With regard to Azerbaijan, their chances of qualification are far from negligible, as they are offered odds of more than doubling, approaching 2.25. In contrast, Moldova and Iceland seem to have little chance of making it to the final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, with Moldova being offered odds of between 3 and 3.75, while Iceland is offered odds of between 3 and 5.2.

Second semi-final

Things seem to be clearer in the second semi-final regarding the chances of the sixteen participating countries qualifying for the grand final on 11 May. The countries taking part in the second semi-final appear to be divided by the bookers into five sub-groups.

The first sub-group is made up of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium. The three Central and Western European countries, which occupy three of the top six places in the odds of winning this year’s competition, are considered by bookmakers to be certain to qualify, which is why their odds of qualification are no more than 1.02.

All five countries in the second sub-group seem largely certain to qualify. Greece, Norway, Israel, Armenia and Austria are offered odds of between 1.04 and 1.2, which translates into qualification odds of 85% for Greece, 83% for Norway, 82% for Israel and Armenia and 81% for Estonia.

A “category” on its own is Estonia, whose qualification to the grand final is considered the most likely scenario, with bookers giving them around 70% odds and playing at odds between 1.28 and 1.33.

Georgia and Denmark are set to battle it out for the final ticket, with Georgia and Denmark both distancing themselves from the leading nine countries and the remaining five in the running. At odds of around 1.75, Georgia ‘s qualification is being played at odds of between 1.67 and 2.22, with bookies giving 52% odds to the Caucasians and 49% to the Scandinavians.

Finally, the last sub-group is the remaining five countries that will take part in the second semi-final on May 9. Latvia, Albania, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic are considered by bookers as the underdogs to qualify for the Eurovision 2024 final, as all of them have odds between 27% and 35% and are offered at odds that return around three times the initial stake.

In any case, with the pre-parties continuing in the coming weeks and with the start of rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest less than a month away, the only thing that is certain is that the shake-up will continue and will culminate as the days for the big celebration in Malmö approach. Competition is fierce and all possibilities are open.

Which countries do you think will qualify for the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments!

Poland: Listen to the acoustic version of “The Tower”!

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As the road to Malmö unfolds, all artists are striving to showcase the uniqueness and strengths of their songs. With 40 days left until the start of the 2024 competition, artists are working hard to promote their entries, leading to beautiful renditions of their songs through special creations and productions.

LUNA, who is set to represent Poland this year, has released the acoustic version of her song “The Tower” on her official YouTube channel. You can enjoy it in the video below.

This stripped-down rendition of “The Tower” allows listeners to appreciate the raw emotion and depth of the song in a more intimate setting. LUNA’s haunting vocals create a captivating atmosphere, drawing the audience into the heart of the song’s narrative.

Based on the statistics, 60% of the countries that placed sixth managed to qualify for the final. This means that nine out of the 15 countries that finished in sixth place advanced to the final.

Specifically, in the years 2009 (5th place), 2011 (8th place), 2012 (3rd place), 2013 (2nd place), 2015 (6th place), 2016 (5th place), 2018 (9th place), 2019 (2nd place), and 2022 (1st place).

Eurovision 2024 Semi Final 1

Eurovision 2024 Semi Final 1

 

Poland is going to perform in the 9th spot of the 1st Semifinal, on May 7th!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhvDkF9XZx0&pp=ygUObHVuYSB0aGUgdG93ZXI%3D

What dou you think about Poland’s entry this year? Tell us in the comments and stay tuned in Eurovisionfun for all the latest updates of Polish entry!