Eurovision 2024: The odds before the first semi-final – Croatia “prevails”!

We are just hours away from the first semi-final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, which means that in a few hours from now fifteen countries will compete for one of the ten tickets leading to Saturday’s grand final.

With rehearsals now complete and dress rehearsals well underway, the favourite column of many of you is back, as the betting analysis for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest is back again.

With less than a few hours to go until the first semi-final of Eurovision 2024, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.

Croatia extends its lead

As expected, yesterday’s Press and Jury Rehearsals brought a lot of shuffling of the betting tables, as it was the first full rehearsals that journalists and the public had access to. With various images having been released online, the mood for many of the participating countries in this year’s competition has changed, having for the first time during this year’s Eurovision season a clearer picture of what the public likes and dislikes.

So the big winner of the last few hours is, by far the runner-up, Croatia. For the first time during this year’s Eurovision season, one country has such a big difference compared to the others. Significantly, at the moment, bookers are offering the Croatian maiden victory at odds between 2.1 and 2.38, the lowest we have seen this year.

This drop in Croatia’s odds also means a parallel rise in the odds for Switzerland, who see their gap to the leading Croatia widening by the hour. Switzerland and Nemo‘s win is now being bet at odds of between 4.5 and 4.75, while on the exchanging offices it is being played close to 5.30.

Italy remains in third place, largely stable in its odds, without losing much ground. Between 5.5 and 7, the Italian win is on offer for those who believe in Angelina Mango‘s potential. Fourth is Ukraine, which after yesterday’s rehearsals lost the momentum it had held up to that point and was on the verge of third place. Up to 9.5 times the stake is returned if the Ukrainians win in Malmö.

The big surprise of the first week of this year’s Eurovision is of course Ireland. Having impressed last week, yesterday’s rehearsals delivered the big bang for Ireland, who are now inside the Top 5, overtaking the Netherlands. The potential for Ireland to win is now offered between 10 and 15.

Top 10

The big loser before the shows is clearly the Netherlands. Having lost three places compared to before the start of the rehearsals and now outside the top five, a potential win for Joost Klein and “Europapa” could return up to seventeen times the stakes.

Absolutely stable and in seventh place is France, as they are now playing at odds between 15 and 21. One place down compared to our last analysis is Israel, now seen as the eighth favourite to win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, at odds close to 36,

One place below is Greece, in ninth place. A possible victory for “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 26 and 67, clearly higher after the release of the clip from the second rehearsal of the Greek delegation last Thursday.

Finally, the top ten is completed by the United Kingdom, which after a long time returns to the higher echelons of the betting tables, with Olly Alexander having built momentum after his first rehearsals. Up to 91 times the stake returns the UK’s first win inside the 21st century.

First Semifinal

As we are just a few hours away from the first semi-final, in today’s analysis we will take a look at the chances of each of the fifteen participating countries in tonight’s show to qualify.

Six countries are considered a given to qualify, with Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Ireland, Finland, Ireland and Luxembourg being offered by bookies at odds of under 1.10. Significantly, the odds on the top four countries in particular return almost nothing to those who bet on them. For example, in the event that someone bets ten euros on their qualification, they will only make a profit of fifty euro cents on the best one.

The countries following the top six seem to have a very big chance of qualifying for the grand final. Portugal, Poland and Cyprus have over 80% chances of qualifying, with their eventual qualification being bet at odds of close to 1.20-1.25.

Beyond that, with a place in the grand final seemingly up for grabs, the edge appears to be with Serbia, whose qualification returns up to 1.67 times the stakes. Australia also seem to have a fairly strong chance, with Australia being played at odds under 2.

Underdogs are now considered to be Slovenia, whose eventual qualification returns almost 3 times the stake, an increase too significant compared to our last analysis.

The following countries, namely Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, are considered less likely to qualify. More chances of qualification for the Azeris played between 3.25 and 5.5, the same is more or less true for Moldova played at similar odds. In contrast, Iceland are far from the rest in last place.

We await the final results tonight with great interest to see if the bookers will be confirmed once again.

Which countries do you think will qualify for the grand final on 11 May?

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!