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Just over three weeks separate us from the start of rehearsals in Malmö ahead of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. As we head into the final stretch just before Eurovision 2024 takes place in the Swedish city, one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with our Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

With bookmakers having started to offer more betting sections for the upcoming contest in recent hours, we take a look at the qualification odds for this year’s Eurovision grand final from the two semi-finals on May 7 and 9.

First semi-final

The first semi-final on May 7 is expected to be particularly competitive, according to the bookers. With just three companies offering the possibility of qualifying for Saturday’s grand final so far, the sample may be small, but it is still largely representative of what we will see on Tuesday’s show.

Four countries are considered by the betting companies to be guaranteed to qualify for the grand final of this year’s competition. Croatia, Ukraine, Finland and Lithuania are offered at odds of under 1.05, a big gap compared to the other eleven participating countries in this semi-final.

Particularly increased chances of qualifying for the grand final are given by bookers to Luxembourg, Cyprus, Serbia and Poland. The group of these countries is being played at odds between 1.25 and 1.33, which translates betting-wise into a qualification probability of over 70% for three of them(Cyprus, Serbia, Poland) and over 80% for Luxembourg in its return to Eurovision after more than three decades.

A battle is expected to be waged for the last two tickets to the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, where four countries are expected to fight for their place in the contest. Slovenia, Portugal, Australia and Ireland are being played at odds of between 1.44 and 1.75, with the former two currently looking like the frontrunners to get past the first semi-final hurdle, with all of them having more than a 53% chance of qualifying.

Finally, regarding the remaining three countries in the first semi-final, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, betting companies see them as the big underdogs for qualification. With regard to Azerbaijan, their chances of qualification are far from negligible, as they are offered odds of more than doubling, approaching 2.25. In contrast, Moldova and Iceland seem to have little chance of making it to the final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, with Moldova being offered odds of between 3 and 3.75, while Iceland is offered odds of between 3 and 5.2.

Second semi-final

Things seem to be clearer in the second semi-final regarding the chances of the sixteen participating countries qualifying for the grand final on 11 May. The countries taking part in the second semi-final appear to be divided by the bookers into five sub-groups.

The first sub-group is made up of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium. The three Central and Western European countries, which occupy three of the top six places in the odds of winning this year’s competition, are considered by bookmakers to be certain to qualify, which is why their odds of qualification are no more than 1.02.

All five countries in the second sub-group seem largely certain to qualify. Greece, Norway, Israel, Armenia and Austria are offered odds of between 1.04 and 1.2, which translates into qualification odds of 85% for Greece, 83% for Norway, 82% for Israel and Armenia and 81% for Estonia.

A “category” on its own is Estonia, whose qualification to the grand final is considered the most likely scenario, with bookers giving them around 70% odds and playing at odds between 1.28 and 1.33.

Georgia and Denmark are set to battle it out for the final ticket, with Georgia and Denmark both distancing themselves from the leading nine countries and the remaining five in the running. At odds of around 1.75, Georgia ‘s qualification is being played at odds of between 1.67 and 2.22, with bookies giving 52% odds to the Caucasians and 49% to the Scandinavians.

Finally, the last sub-group is the remaining five countries that will take part in the second semi-final on May 9. Latvia, Albania, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic are considered by bookers as the underdogs to qualify for the Eurovision 2024 final, as all of them have odds between 27% and 35% and are offered at odds that return around three times the initial stake.

In any case, with the pre-parties continuing in the coming weeks and with the start of rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest less than a month away, the only thing that is certain is that the shake-up will continue and will culminate as the days for the big celebration in Malmö approach. Competition is fierce and all possibilities are open.

Which countries do you think will qualify for the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments!