The Model: Predicted Results for Eurovision 2024!

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The Model is a project by Eurovoix aimed at predicting the results of the Eurovision contest, based on betting odds, fan voting online, app usage, song views and streamings on electronic platforms, historical voting patterns, and even the position in the running order. It also takes into account other external factors such as political developments that could influence the outcome, or the nationality of an artist.

As the computational prediction model is constructed based on contemporary data, which dynamically change during the pre-party period, its recently updated version predicts Switzerland as the winner instead of Italy.

Ukraine and The Netherlands continue to be the winners of the two semi-finals, while in this edition, Greece and Cyprus also advance to the final, both with an upward trajectory.

First Semi-Final Scoreboard

Second Semi-Final Scoreboard

The change observed here is the qualification of Georgia for the Grand Final and the displacement of Denmark among the non-qualifiers. Clearly, Nutsa Buzaladze’s outstanding performance at the London Eurovision Party last weekend won over the fans and gave a boost to the Georgian entry.

Final Scoreboard

Perhaps the most challenging in terms of prediction, the voting outcome crowns Switzerland as the big winner of Eurovision 2024. According to this computational model, Greece will finish 13th (10th in both televoting and juries), while Cyprus will place 19th (21st with the juries and 16th in the televote).

What do you think of The Model’s results? Will they be confirmed in May? Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the updates!

Source: eurovoix.com

Netherlands: Het Grote Songfestivalfeest 2024 Set for December 12th!

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Het Grote Songfestivalfeest will take place for the fourth consecutive year on December 12th in Amsterdam. It’s a major concert dedicated to the Eurovision Song Contest, where many stars of the competition perform their songs, now considered classics in the contest.

The Het Grote Songfestivalfeest concert was first held in late 2019 to promote Eurovision 2020, which was scheduled to take place in the Netherlands. After two years of absence and a cancellation in 2021 due to COVID-19 safety measures, the concert returns stronger than ever.

Attendees of the concert will include former winners and participants of Eurovision, with previous Greek artists such as Stefania (2022, 2023), Eleni Foureira (2023), and Helena Paparizou (2022) among them.

The hosts of the evening will be Edsilia Rombley (Netherlands 1998 and 2007, host of Eurovision 2021) and Dutch commentator Cornald Maas. Tickets are available by clicking the link here.

The grand concert is a collaboration between the public channel AVROTROS and PILOTSTUDIO and will take place on December 12th at the Ziggo Dome in Amsterdam. It will also be televised by the Dutch public broadcaster.

Below, you can get a taste of last year’s performances by Eleni Foureira and Stefania at the grand concert:

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments regarding the Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö!

Source: Het Grote Songfestivalfeest

Bets: The first odds for advancing to the final!

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Just over three weeks separate us from the start of rehearsals in Malmö ahead of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. As we head into the final stretch just before Eurovision 2024 takes place in the Swedish city, one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with our Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

With bookmakers having started to offer more betting sections for the upcoming contest in recent hours, we take a look at the qualification odds for this year’s Eurovision grand final from the two semi-finals on May 7 and 9.

First semi-final

The first semi-final on May 7 is expected to be particularly competitive, according to the bookers. With just three companies offering the possibility of qualifying for Saturday’s grand final so far, the sample may be small, but it is still largely representative of what we will see on Tuesday’s show.

Four countries are considered by the betting companies to be guaranteed to qualify for the grand final of this year’s competition. Croatia, Ukraine, Finland and Lithuania are offered at odds of under 1.05, a big gap compared to the other eleven participating countries in this semi-final.

Particularly increased chances of qualifying for the grand final are given by bookers to Luxembourg, Cyprus, Serbia and Poland. The group of these countries is being played at odds between 1.25 and 1.33, which translates betting-wise into a qualification probability of over 70% for three of them(Cyprus, Serbia, Poland) and over 80% for Luxembourg in its return to Eurovision after more than three decades.

A battle is expected to be waged for the last two tickets to the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, where four countries are expected to fight for their place in the contest. Slovenia, Portugal, Australia and Ireland are being played at odds of between 1.44 and 1.75, with the former two currently looking like the frontrunners to get past the first semi-final hurdle, with all of them having more than a 53% chance of qualifying.

Finally, regarding the remaining three countries in the first semi-final, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, betting companies see them as the big underdogs for qualification. With regard to Azerbaijan, their chances of qualification are far from negligible, as they are offered odds of more than doubling, approaching 2.25. In contrast, Moldova and Iceland seem to have little chance of making it to the final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, with Moldova being offered odds of between 3 and 3.75, while Iceland is offered odds of between 3 and 5.2.

Second semi-final

Things seem to be clearer in the second semi-final regarding the chances of the sixteen participating countries qualifying for the grand final on 11 May. The countries taking part in the second semi-final appear to be divided by the bookers into five sub-groups.

The first sub-group is made up of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium. The three Central and Western European countries, which occupy three of the top six places in the odds of winning this year’s competition, are considered by bookmakers to be certain to qualify, which is why their odds of qualification are no more than 1.02.

All five countries in the second sub-group seem largely certain to qualify. Greece, Norway, Israel, Armenia and Austria are offered odds of between 1.04 and 1.2, which translates into qualification odds of 85% for Greece, 83% for Norway, 82% for Israel and Armenia and 81% for Estonia.

A “category” on its own is Estonia, whose qualification to the grand final is considered the most likely scenario, with bookers giving them around 70% odds and playing at odds between 1.28 and 1.33.

Georgia and Denmark are set to battle it out for the final ticket, with Georgia and Denmark both distancing themselves from the leading nine countries and the remaining five in the running. At odds of around 1.75, Georgia ‘s qualification is being played at odds of between 1.67 and 2.22, with bookies giving 52% odds to the Caucasians and 49% to the Scandinavians.

Finally, the last sub-group is the remaining five countries that will take part in the second semi-final on May 9. Latvia, Albania, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic are considered by bookers as the underdogs to qualify for the Eurovision 2024 final, as all of them have odds between 27% and 35% and are offered at odds that return around three times the initial stake.

In any case, with the pre-parties continuing in the coming weeks and with the start of rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest less than a month away, the only thing that is certain is that the shake-up will continue and will culminate as the days for the big celebration in Malmö approach. Competition is fierce and all possibilities are open.

Which countries do you think will qualify for the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments!

Bets: Upset at the top – Switzerland ahead!

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A few days after the first pre-party of this year’s Eurovision season, one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with betting analysis for Eurovision 2024 back again.

As you prepare for the pivotal next few days with the continuation of the pre-parties, the bookers have already got down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already being offered to all bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next competition.

Battle for five

It’s “chaotic” in the top five of the betting tables ahead of Eurovision 2024, less than a month before the start of the rehearsals. Switzerland, Croatia, Italy, Ukraine and the Netherlands have stood out in comparison to the other participants of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, which leads us to an unprecedented situation in the betting chronicles of our favourite competition.

Just two days after Nemo ‘s appearance at the Madrid party, Switzerland has turned the betting tables upside down, now in first place. Already since the previous time, “The Code” was gaining ground day by day, until the Swiss representative’s maiden live performance the day before yesterday came to turn the previous data upside down. Switzerland’ s victory is now being bet at odds between 3.5 and 4.5.

Just over a month has passed since Croatia stayed at the top, with the Croats now dropping to second place, a stone’s throw away from the now leading Switzerland. Baby Lasagna ‘s win is currently being bet at odds of between 3.5 and 4.6, slightly higher than last week’s odds.

Switzerland’ s rise to the top has resulted in Italy, in addition to Croatia, losing a place. Thus, Angelina Mango with “La Noia” is considered by the bookers as the third favourite to win in Malmö. However, Italy ‘s odds of winning have dropped compared to our last analysis a couple of weeks ago, with the possibility of a second Italian victory in the current decade considered highly likely. Between 4.5 and 6 are the odds offered on an Italian win for those who believe in Angelina Mango‘s potential.

Ukraine is now in fourth place, but clearly on a downward trend. With the gap between the three leading countries widening, bookers are offering Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil ‘s victory at the highest odds we have seen offered during this year’s Eurovision season. Ukraine ‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds between 5.5 and 8.

Finally, the top five is completed by the Netherlands. If we’re talking about winners of the last few weeks, surely the Eurovision 2021 host could not be absent from the discussion, with Joost Klein ‘s ‘Europapa‘ having made a big impression and sweeping the charts and streams across much of the Old Continent, being one of the dark horses of this year’s contest. Between 6.5 and 8 is the Dutch win in Malmö, well below our last analysis and with the Netherlands very likely to move up to fourth place in the next few hours.

Top 10, Greece and Cyprus

With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place is Belgium. Belgium ‘s win is being bet at odds between 11 and 15, being on par compared to our last analysis, with bookies giving Mustii and ‘Before the Party’s Over‘ respectable odds for a positive result in Malmo.

France have quietly moved up to seventh place, and have consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 23 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane, with France gaining two places in the last few days.

One place has been lost by Greece, which is now eighth. The “tailwind” after the release of Marina Satti ‘s “ZARI” brought the country within the Top 10, with Greece now stabilizing within it and not threatened to be lower in the near future.

Marina Satti ‘s win is currently being played at odds between 17 and 26, slightly higher compared to our last analysis, with bookers, however, giving a vote of confidence to the Greek entry.

Up one place for hosts Sweden, who are now ninth. Sweden ‘s home win over Marcus & Martinus is offered at odds of between 26 and 41, which are the highest bookers have offered this year on the possibility of a historic eighth home win for this year’s hosts.

Rounding out the top ten is Austria, who also gained a place after the Madrid party as Kaleen and “We Will Rave” left a positive impression. Up to 51 times the stake returns the possibility of an Austrian victory in Malmö.

In any case, with the pre-parties continuing in the coming weeks and with the start of rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest less than a month away, the only thing that is certain is that the shake-up will continue and will culminate as the days for the big celebration in Malmö approach. The competition is fierce and with no one favourite standing out, all bets are off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg

Will Switzerland achieve its third Eurovision Song Contest win with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!

The Netherlands: Chantal Janzen and Jan Smit want to present Eurovision again!

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Chantal Janzen and Jan Smit want to present the Eurovision Song Contest again if Joost Klein wins the upcoming event in Malmö, Sweden. In an interview with Dutch website Shownieuws, the two said they would find it “very cool”.

When asked if they would consider presenting the competition again, they answered:

–Jan Smit: “That would be certainly fantastic!

-Chantal Janze: “If they asked us, yes, but we don’t really have any influence on that.”

–Jan Smit: “We’d love to and we’ve shown we can do it.”

Jan and Chantal are not the first to aim for the position of presenting the Eurovision Song Contest. Former winner Duncan Laurence also declared his interest earlier this month.

Should the Netherlands win in May in Malmö, would you like to see Chantal Janzen and Jan Smit back as the hosts of the show? Let us know what you think in the comments.

Source: Shownieuws

Stay tuned on Eurovisionfun for all the updates around the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest!

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Eurovision 2024: The running order of the semifinals has been revealed!

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With a month and a half to go until the first Eurovision 2024 semi-final on 7 May, the EBU today announced the order of the semi-final line-up.

The order of appearance was determined by the EBU in cooperation with the Swedish organisers, taking into account which place each country was drawn to perform (first or second), but also in a way that the show would be more interesting.

The official Eurovision YouTube channel announced a few minutes ago the official order of appearance of the songs in the semi-finals of this year’s contest.

It is worth noting that this year is the first year in which the Big 5 and the host country, Sweden, are going to perform their songs live in the two semi-finals. So, among the competing countries in the two semi-finals, we will see Germany, Sweden and the UK as guest stars in the first semi-final, while in the second semi-final we’ll see France, Italy and Spain.

Running Order

Semi-final 1 – Tuesday 7 May

  1. Cyprus
  2. Serbia
  3. Lithuania
  4. Ireland
    United Kingdom
  5. Ukraine
  6. Poland
  7. Croatia
  8. Iceland
    Germany
  9. Slovenia
  10. Finland
  11. Moldova
    Sweden
  12. Azerbaijan
  13. Australia
  14. Portugal
  15. Luxembourg

Semi-final 2 – Thursday 11 May

  1. Malta
  2. Albania
  3. Greece
  4. Switzerland
  5. Czechia
    France
  6. Austria
  7. Denmark
  8. Armenia
  9. Latvia
    Spain
  10. San Marino
  11. Georgia
  12. Belgium
  13. Estonia
    Italy
  14. Israel
  15. Norway
  16. Netherlands

The analysis from fans and beyond has been on fire for a few minutes now. After the theories based on the countries’ history in the competition, it’s a first insight into how deep the qualification to the final is or isn’t. In other words, it’s time to make our predictions about who will make it to the final and who are favourites to say goodbye to Malmö early…

Malmö will host the 68th Eurovision Song Contest from 7 to 11 May at the Malmö Arena. The motto of this year’s event, as chosen by the organisers, is ‘United by Music’.

Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the developments regarding Eurovision 2024!

Bets: The odds after the release of all entries!

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A few days have passed since the unveiling of all the entries for this year’s Eurovision season, which is why one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most beloved and talked about columns is back, with the Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.

As you prepare for the pivotal next few days with the start of the pre-parties, the bookers have already got down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already being offered to all bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next competition.

Croatia is the only first

The situation at the top may be unchanged, with Croatia remaining in first place for almost three weeks now, but nevertheless the distance between the Balkans and their pursuers is growing. With a month and a half to go before the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, the possibility of Croatia achieving its maiden victory in the contest is looking increasingly likely. Baby Lasagna ‘s victory is currently being bet at odds ranging between 3 and 4, the lowest ever offered for a Croatian entry.

In second place, but clearly trending downwards, is now Ukraine. With the gap to the leading Croatia having widened, bookers are offering Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil ‘s victory at the highest odds we have seen offered during this year’s Eurovision season. Ukraine ‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being staked at odds between 5 and 7.

In third place is Italy, with their odds dropping daily and coming close to those of Ukraine. Between 6 and 8 times the stake is currently returning Angelina Mango ‘s victory with “La Noia“, for those who believe in a second Italian victory in the current decade.

Switzerland remains in fourth place, trailing Italy by a foot. Switzerland ‘s victory is being bet at odds between 5 and 8.5, with Nemo ‘s “The Code” gaining ground day by day and being one of the big winners in recent weeks following the official release of the Swiss entry.

Finally, the top five is completed by the Netherlands. If we’re talking about winners of the last weeks, surely the Eurovision 2021 host could not be absent from the discussion, with Joost Klein ‘s “Europapa” having impressed and sweeping the charts and streams in much of the Old Continent, being one of the dark horses of this year’s contest. Between 9 and 11 is the odds on the Dutchman’s win in Malmö, well lower than in our last analysis.

Top 10

With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place is Belgium. Belgium ‘s win is being bet at odds between 11 and 15, being marginally lower compared to our last analysis, with bookies giving Mustii and ‘Before the Party’s Over‘ respectable odds for a positive result in Malmo.

The big winner of the last few days is, of course, Greece. Greece has moved up to seventh place, being eight places higher compared to our analysis ten days ago after the national finals. Marina Satti and “ZARI” are gaining ground, with bookers having placed Greece in the highest position it has been this year during the Eurovision season.

Marina Satti ‘s win is currently being played at odds between 13 and 21, with the popularity that the Greek entry is gaining day by day has seen its odds halved and bookers giving a vote of confidence to the Greek entry.

Eighth place is held by Israel, which has also gained ground in recent days, moving up two places. The release of “Hurricane“, which Eden Golan will compete with in Malmö, has brought down the odds of Israel winning, which is being played at similar prices to those of leading Greece. Israel’s win returns up to 21 times the stake.

Ninth place went to France, which has been trending slightly downwards in recent days following the release of all the songs that will compete at Eurovision 2024. Up to 34 times the stake is returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane.

Sweden completes the top ten. The multiple winner of the contest and host this year is steadily losing ground, being one of the biggest losers of recent days. Sweden ‘s home win is offered at odds between 19 and 36, dropping compared to our last analysis and dropping this year’s hosts by three places, bringing Marcus & Martinus to the edge of the Top 10.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBsgTJQFl9k

Do you think Baby Lasagna will be able to give Croatia its maiden victory as an independent country in the Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments!

Netherlands: Watch Joost Klein perform “Europapa” live for the first time!

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During one of his concerts in The Netherlands, Joost Klein gave his first “Europapa” live performance.

Joost Klein was selected internally by Dutch national television back in December, following a closed to the public selection. His 2024 entry “Europapa” was released two weeks ago and it instantly gained commercial success, overpassing Duncan Laurence’s record on most Spotify streams during its first day of release. The Netherlands currently sits on no.6 of the betting odds.

The Netherlands with Joost Klein and “Europapa” is allocated to perform in the second half of the second semi-final on May 9.

You can also watch EurovisionFun’s reaction video on “Europapa“, below:

Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the news! 

Netherlands: Donny Ronny will stage Joost Klein’s Eurovision 2024 entry!

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“Europapa”, with which Joost Klein will represent the Netherlands at Eurovision 2024, is undoubtedly one of the most talked-about entries in this year’s contest. With more than 13 million streams on Spotify and nearly 10 million views on YouTube, the singer is now in the top five of the betting odds.

Expectations are therefore high for the Netherlands’ stage performance. A few hours earlier, AVROTROS, the country’s public broadcaster, revealed that Donny Ronny would be directing Joost Klein’s stage show.

Donny Ronny is known for the comedic style he brings to his works, while he has several collaborations in theater performances to his credit. At the same time, he has previously worked with Joost Klein on multiple occasions. Ronny is particularly popular in the Netherlands, where his most well-known project is the television programme “LOL: Last One Laughing”.

The Netherlands is participating in the second half of the second semi-final, on May 9th. Will Joost Klein manage to bring the country to the grand final, after a year’s absence?

https://youtu.be/gT2wY0DjYGo?si=cYiGO-xVv4ze0FU1

Stay tuned on Eurovisionfun for all the Eurovision 2024 updates!

Source: AVROTROS

Bets: The odds after the completion of the national finals!

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A few hours have passed since the conclusion of the national finals of this year’s Eurovision season, with Sweden and Portugal being the last two countries to choose the song that will represent them in the 68th Eurovision Song Contest.

That’s why one of Eurovisionfun ‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with our Eurovision 2024 betting analyses back again.

As you prepare for the pivotal next few days with the unveiling of the remaining entries ahead of May, bookers are already getting down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already being offered to some bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next competition.

Croatia tops the list – Shuffles in the top five

The situation at the top remains unchanged, with Croatia having been in first place for ten days now. Baby Lasagna ‘s sweeping victory at Dora has put Croatia in the top spot in the betting tables for the first time in their history. Croatia’ s victory is currently being bet at odds between 4 and 5.25, odds slightly higher compared to those played when our last analysis was written.

Ukraine remains in second place. Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil may have fallen from the top spot, however, their distance from leading Croatia is very small, with Ukraine’s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest being bet at odds between 4.33 and 5.6.

Italy has moved back up to third place. More or less at the same level are the odds of Angelina Mango winning with “La Noia” , returning between 7.5 and 10 times the stake of anyone who believes in the second Italian victory in the last four years.

And now let’s go to the countries that complete the top five, where we have two entries that have risen significantly in recent days. Fourth is now Switzerland after the release of Nemo ‘s “The Code“, which has moved up six places compared to our last analysis, now directly threatening third place Italy. Switzerland ‘s victory is being bet at odds between 6 and 10 and it is only a matter of hours – it seems – to move into third place.

The top five is completed by the Netherlands, with Joost Klein ‘s “Europapa” having won the impressions and hearts of a large part of the public. The Western European country’s entry is the biggest winner of the last few days, being 20 places higher than in our analysis ten days ago. Between 11 and 15 is the Dutch victory in Malmö.

Top 10

Belgium is in sixth place. The release of Mustii ‘s “Before the Party’s Over” a few days ago seems to have initially excited the betting companies, who now have the Western European country out of the Top 5 a few days after its release. Belgium ‘s victory is being bet at odds between 11 and 17, being only slightly higher than those of the leading Netherlands.

Sweden dropped to seventh place, a few hours after the grand final of this year’s edition of Melodifestivalen where Marcus & Martinus won with “Unforgettable“. Sweden ‘s home win is offered at odds between 11 and 19, marking a slight rise compared to our last analysis and dropping this year’s organisers by one place.

Eighth place is taken by France, who have been trending upwards in recent days, especially after Slimane ‘s performance in the Croatian national final a week ago. Up to 21 times the stake is returned on “Mon Amour“.

In ninth place is now Georgia. Just one day before the release of Nutsa Buzaladze ‘s “Firefighter“, the Caucasian country has moved into the top ten, dropping its odds sharply in recent times and, at the same time, creating a climate of anticipation and expectations for the unveiling of this year’s Georgian entry. Georgia’s victory is being played at odds between 15 and 26.

Rounding out the top ten is Israel, who return to the top ten just hours before the release of “Hurricane“, which Eden Golan will compete with in Malmö. Like leading Georgia, Israel’s win returns up to 26 times the stakes.

Do you think Baby Lasagna will be able to give Croatia its maiden victory as an independent country in the Eurovision Song Contest? Tell us in the comments!