The two semi-finals brought upsets upon upsets to the betting tables, with several countries standing out and others losing ground. The leak of the Italian public’s votes in the second semi-final changed the scene dramatically, with everything we wrote yesterday going out the window.
With less than 36 hours to go until the Eurovision 2024 grand final, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.
Derby at the top
Israel‘s “breath” is now felt by Croatia, with last night’s RAI leak moving Eden Golan up six places, with room to move up even further. The sweeping wave of support for Israel‘s entry, which counted around 40% of the Italian public vote, may indicate a Europe-wide trend of support for the Hurricane.
When yesterday, in a total of 16 countries, one song has received 40% of the votes and the second, the Netherlands, has just under 8%, then we can talk about a situation that could have a profound effect on the development of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest.
In any case, even at the time of writing this article, the first favourite is Croatia. Baby Lasagna‘s supersonic performance in the first semi-final had given Croatia a clear margin of victory, with its maiden win as an independent country “just around the corner” according to bookers who offered that possibility at odds of 1.62 to 1.91 before the second semi-final. At the moment, you can bet on a maiden Croatian victory at odds between 1.83 and 2.25.
Second is Israel, who yesterday before their appearance in the second semi-final and, especially, the Italian broadcaster’s leak, were considered the eighth favourite to win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, at odds close to 67. As expected, those odds are now a thing of the past. Thus, Israel‘s win at Eurovision 2024 is being played at odds between 2.75 and 3.5. This is the biggest odds drop recorded from semi-final to final in Eurovision history, and it is not unlikely that in the next few hours Croatia will get even closer in the next few hours.
Despite Nemo‘s excellent performance in last night’s second semi-final, Switzerland has dropped to third place as a direct result of Israel’s rapid rise. Switzerland and Nemo‘s victory is now being bet at odds between 6 and 9, up from 3.5 to 4 last night.
The second winner of last night’s show is undoubtedly France, which is the only country along with Israel to see its odds fall by the hour. Between 17 and 26 was being played last night for France to win, while it is now being played between 11 and 17. Slimane‘s outstanding performance, which moved millions of viewers across Europe, lifted the French above the Ukrainians, Irish and Italians.
The top five is completed by Ukraine, being the big loser after the second semi-final, losing two places from where they were in our last analysis. With the odds on offer having almost doubled, currently as much as 26 times the stakes are returning on a Ukrainian win in Malmö.
Top 10
At similar odds to Ukraine, you can also play Ireland, who have dropped to sixth place, having been in fourth before the second semi-final. The possibility of Ireland winning is now offered between 13 and 26.
A loss of one place for Italy too, with a win for Angelina Mango tomorrow night returning up to 36 times the money of anyone who bets on her. Rising odds for Italy, who have lost whatever momentum they had before the contest.
The same is true, but to an even greater extent, for eighth-placed Netherlands. Having lost five places compared to before the start of the rehearsals and now outside the top five in eighth place, a potential win for Joost Klein and “Europapa” could return up to 81 times the stake.
Greece remains in ninth place at the time of writing, with the fluctuations during the day being huge. In the early hours of the morning of May 10 we have seen too many countries move up and down continuously, with some time of the day being within the top ten and others even lower. The same has happened in the case of Greece, which is now ninth, but was earlier in 15th place. A possible win for “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 81 and 251, higher than in our analysis the day before yesterday where it was played at odds between 51 and 151.
At the same maximum odds as Greece, one finds the United Kingdom, which completes the top ten. Up to 251 times the stake is returned on the UK’s first win within the 21st century.
Conclusions
We await with great interest in the coming hours whether the betting tables will be further affected, following the leak of Italy‘s votes in last night’s semi-final with its sweeping support for Israel. In any case, we’ll be back with additional betting articles ahead of the grand final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest.
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!
Sweden
Ukraine
Germany
Luxembourg
Israel
Lithuania
Spain
Estonia
Ireland
Latvia
Greece
United Kingdom
Norway
Italy
Serbia
Finland
Portugal
Armenia
Cyprus
Switzerland
Slovenia
Croatia
Georgia
France
Austria
Netherlands
