With the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024 just around the corner, The Model, Eurovoix’s data-driven simulation of the contest, is favoring Switzerland as the potential winner.
Drawing from diverse data sources including current betting odds, community rankings, and polls, The Model maintains that Nemo and their song ‘The Code‘ are the frontrunners to clinch victory in this year’s competition.
As per the latest simulation, Switzerland is anticipated to accumulate a total of 454 points, potentially marking the lowest winning total since the inception of the new voting system in 2016. Trailing closely behind are Ukraine and Italy, both projected to score 422 points and sharing the second position.
Utilizing data from bookmakers’ odds, community rankings, and more, The Model endeavors to provide accurate Eurovision predictions. For a deeper understanding of its methodology, check out a brief explanation here:
As the contest draws nearer, The Model adjusts its projections to reflect evolving dynamics, considering factors such as show running orders, political biases, and tactical voting. This meticulous approach aims to generate realistic forecasts of the final outcome.
So, if The Model were to be entirely accurate, what scenarios does it predict for Eurovision 2024?
Semi-Final One
With rehearsals underway, fans and bookmakers gain insights into each country’s staging plans, influencing the shifting landscape of winning probabilities. Today’s updated projections from The Model reflect these changes, presenting a significantly altered picture from previous assessments.
Ukraine retains its lead in the first semi-final, with Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil‘s song “Teresa & Maria” receiving a significant boost in odds following the reveal of their staging. Following closely behind is Baby Lasagna and Croatia, securing the second spot despite climbing to first place in the overall odds.
Noteworthy is Ireland, rapidly climbing in the rankings following the unveiling of Bambie Thug‘s rehearsal clip for “Doomsday Blue“. With shortened odds, The Model now predicts Ireland to comfortably secure 135 points in the first semi-final, marking a return to the final stage.
Silvester Belt‘s “Luktelk” for Lithuania follows closely with 115 points, while Finland and Cyprus tie at 94 points in fifth and sixth places. Despite being high-energy songs, both “No Rules” and “Liar” benefit from the removal of juries this year, enhancing their chances of garnering public support.
Semi-Final Two
In the second semi-final, although there have been fewer changes, The Model adapts its projection to align with evolving odds, polls, and other factors. Notably, bookmakers display higher confidence in the outcome of Semi-Final Two compared to Semi-Final One, a sentiment echoed by The Model.
Joost Klein is forecasted to triumph in this semi-final with his hardstyle anthem “Europapa“, closing the show with a bang. Despite some critique of the staging, The Model anticipates overwhelming support for the song translating into substantial points on Thursday.
Trailing behind Joost Klein is Nemo with “The Code“, securing a robust 165 points. While Switzerland‘s position as a favorite to win the overall contest remains unchanged, Nemo‘s projection reflects the advantageous impact of their later performance slot in the running order.
Grand Final
In the absence of the running order for the final, The Model treats each song as if performing in the same position, except for Sweden, who has already drawn the first slot. Despite this limitation, The Model projects a compelling showdown in the Grand Final.
In this simulation, Israel leads the pack in the jury vote with their poignant ballad “Hurricane“, narrowly surpassing Switzerland. However, the public vote paints a different picture, with Ukraine emerging victorious, closely trailed by Switzerland and Italy.
Ultimately, Switzerland secures victory with 454 points, leveraging its strong performances in both the jury and public votes. While surprises abound in The Model’s projections, only the final show will reveal whether these predictions materialize into reality.
With just one week left until Eurovision 2024, The Model continues to refine its projections. Stay tuned for predictions for each show next week, and after the events, we’ll compare The Model’s forecasts with the actual results, offering insights into its accuracy.
As the excitement builds, all eyes are on Switzerland as the projected favorite to emerge victorious. The countdown to Eurovision 2024 is on, and anticipation is at an all-time high as fans eagerly await the grand finale.
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest developments regarding the 68th Eurovision Song Contest!
Source: Eurovoix
