The Model: Switzerland Tipped for Victory with One Week Remaining

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With the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024 just around the corner, The Model, Eurovoix’s data-driven simulation of the contest, is favoring Switzerland as the potential winner.

Drawing from diverse data sources including current betting odds, community rankings, and polls, The Model maintains that Nemo and their song ‘The Code‘ are the frontrunners to clinch victory in this year’s competition.

As per the latest simulation, Switzerland is anticipated to accumulate a total of 454 points, potentially marking the lowest winning total since the inception of the new voting system in 2016. Trailing closely behind are Ukraine and Italy, both projected to score 422 points and sharing the second position.

Utilizing data from bookmakers’ odds, community rankings, and more, The Model endeavors to provide accurate Eurovision predictions. For a deeper understanding of its methodology, check out a brief explanation here:

As the contest draws nearer, The Model adjusts its projections to reflect evolving dynamics, considering factors such as show running orders, political biases, and tactical voting. This meticulous approach aims to generate realistic forecasts of the final outcome.

So, if The Model were to be entirely accurate, what scenarios does it predict for Eurovision 2024?

Semi-Final One

With rehearsals underway, fans and bookmakers gain insights into each country’s staging plans, influencing the shifting landscape of winning probabilities. Today’s updated projections from The Model reflect these changes, presenting a significantly altered picture from previous assessments.

Ukraine retains its lead in the first semi-final, with Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil‘s song “Teresa & Maria” receiving a significant boost in odds following the reveal of their staging. Following closely behind is Baby Lasagna and Croatia, securing the second spot despite climbing to first place in the overall odds.

Noteworthy is Ireland, rapidly climbing in the rankings following the unveiling of Bambie Thug‘s rehearsal clip for “Doomsday Blue“. With shortened odds, The Model now predicts Ireland to comfortably secure 135 points in the first semi-final, marking a return to the final stage.

Silvester Belt‘s “Luktelk” for Lithuania follows closely with 115 points, while Finland and Cyprus tie at 94 points in fifth and sixth places. Despite being high-energy songs, both “No Rules” and “Liar” benefit from the removal of juries this year, enhancing their chances of garnering public support.

Semi-Final Two

In the second semi-final, although there have been fewer changes, The Model adapts its projection to align with evolving odds, polls, and other factors. Notably, bookmakers display higher confidence in the outcome of Semi-Final Two compared to Semi-Final One, a sentiment echoed by The Model.

Joost Klein is forecasted to triumph in this semi-final with his hardstyle anthem “Europapa“, closing the show with a bang. Despite some critique of the staging, The Model anticipates overwhelming support for the song translating into substantial points on Thursday.

Trailing behind Joost Klein is Nemo with “The Code“, securing a robust 165 points. While Switzerland‘s position as a favorite to win the overall contest remains unchanged, Nemo‘s projection reflects the advantageous impact of their later performance slot in the running order.

Grand Final

In the absence of the running order for the final, The Model treats each song as if performing in the same position, except for Sweden, who has already drawn the first slot. Despite this limitation, The Model projects a compelling showdown in the Grand Final.

In this simulation, Israel leads the pack in the jury vote with their poignant ballad “Hurricane“, narrowly surpassing Switzerland. However, the public vote paints a different picture, with Ukraine emerging victorious, closely trailed by Switzerland and Italy.

Ultimately, Switzerland secures victory with 454 points, leveraging its strong performances in both the jury and public votes. While surprises abound in The Model’s projections, only the final show will reveal whether these predictions materialize into reality.

With just one week left until Eurovision 2024, The Model continues to refine its projections. Stay tuned for predictions for each show next week, and after the events, we’ll compare The Model’s forecasts with the actual results, offering insights into its accuracy.

As the excitement builds, all eyes are on Switzerland as the projected favorite to emerge victorious. The countdown to Eurovision 2024 is on, and anticipation is at an all-time high as fans eagerly await the grand finale.

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest developments regarding the 68th Eurovision Song Contest!

Source: Eurovoix

Eurovision 2024: Watch the exclusive TV footage from today’s second rehearsals!

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The seventh day of technical rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö is now over, and the preparations are heating up. Following their first technical rehearsals, seven of the countries competing in the second semi-final took the stage of Malmö Arena for their second round of rehearsals.

The second rehearsals allowed the delegations to iron out any issues from the first round of rehearsals and gave the artists a greater sense of security and comfort on the Eurovision main stage.

We know very little about what this year’s artists have prepared for the Eurovision stage because accredited journalists are not permitted to watch both the first and second rehearsals. The EBU has just posted a recap of today’s rehearsals on YouTube via the official Eurovision channel. More precisely, we’ll get to see the exclusive TV footage of today’s rehearsals.

The countries that had their second rehearsals today were the following:

  1. San Marino
  2. Georgia
  3. Belgium
  4. Estonia
  5. Israel
  6. Norway
  7. The Netherlands

You can watch the recap of today’s rehearsals below:

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Eurovision 2024: Georgia’s Second Rehearsal!

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Next up on stage for her second rehearsal is Georgia’s Nutsa Buzaladze with her song “Firefighter”! 

Who is Nutsa? 

Buzaladze was born in Tbilisi in 1997, but she grew up in Turkey. She started singing even from the age of five years old, when she performed as a member of a children’s group. Later, at the age of eight, she began taking piano lessons as well. 

Moreover, Nutsa began her solo career back in 2011 when she competed in Georgia’s Got Talent, while three years later, she gained international attention as she represented Georgia in the New Wave Music Festival, held in Latvia, where she won. She has also taken part in The Voice of Turkey, where she collaborated with her coach, Hadise, who represented Turkey back in 2009 in Moscow with “Düm Tek Tek”. Additionally, she has also taken part in the Georgian version of Your Face Sounds Familiar. 

Furthermore, in 2017 Buzaladze released the song “White Horses Run“, which she placed second in the Georgian selection for the Eurovision Song Contest 2017 with. Two years later, she released her debut album, Nutsa22, containing covers of Georgian songs and original English ones. Nutsa has also participated in the 21st season of the American Idol, in which she finished in the top 12. 

Last but not least, she has also lived in Los Angeles, and since 2024 Dubai is her permanent residence, where she had also performed at the Expo 2020, the Dubai National Theatre and the Dubai Opera. 

 

The rehearsal

Time for Georgia to rehearse, with Nutsa Buzaldze singing her dance track Firefighter. She’s competed in a singing competition or two, including American Idol in 2023, where she made the final. Yes, actual American Idol. She did a duet of Can’t Get You Out Of My Head with Kylie Minogue. This feels like a Eurovision fever dream, but there’s video evidence and everything. 

We know from pre-party season that Nutsa has some powerhouse vocals, and she’s definitely brought them to Malmö. She starts alone on stage on a raised plinth, under a red spotlight and backed by red smoky graphics. At the end of the first verse she’s joined on buy four male dancers in black (with shirts) – it’s a VERY polished, high-energy dance routine with the LED graphics building through the song into sparking balls of flame. 

Nutsa’s costume is a shiny gold mini-dress paired with boots – she doesn’t miss a note, despite the energetic routine.m Also, SO. MANY. FLAMES! 

 

Georgia is set to have the Dress Rehearsal, alongside the rest of the acts from the Second Semi-Final on Wednesday, 8th of May! 

Source: eurovision.tv 

 

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Eurovision 2024: The schedule of the seventh day of rehearsals (Friday 3 May)!

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With the first rehearsals for the participating countries of the two semi-finals complete, the action continues today with the countries that will take part in the second half of the second semi-final taking to the stage for the second time on the Malmö Arena stage.

With no major changes expected this year, the rehearsals for Eurovision 2024 are expected to take place in the upcoming week. Rehearsals are divided into two phases, the first which will run for four days from today until Tuesday 30/04 and will include the initial first rehearsals of all countries taking part in the two semi-finals of the contest and the second which will run from Wednesday 01/05 until Saturday 04/05 and will include the second rehearsals of the countries in the two semi-finals as well as both rehearsals of the countries competing directly in the Final, namely the Big 5 and the host Sweden.

Last year’s changes in the way the rehearsals are covered are maintained this year, as the Press Centre opens on the Monday after the first and second rehearsals.

As a consequence, the information we will have for the first week of the contest will come exclusively from the material provided by the EBU to accredited journalists, as well as through the Live Blogs on Reddit and the short videos on TikTok.

Today’s Schedule

Seven countries are set to take to the stage at Malmö Arena today, with San Marino and Megara “kicking off” on Thursday morning. The detailed schedule for the seventh day of rehearsals of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest is as follows (Mentioned in CET/Swedish Time):

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Eurovision 2024: The odds after the completion of the first rehearsals!

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The favourite column of many of you returns, as the betting analyses for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest are back again.

With less than a week to go until the first Eurovision 2024 semi-final and after the fourth day of rehearsals, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.

Top 5

Largely unchanged is the situation at the top of the betting tables, with Nemo and Switzerland seen as the heavy favourites to win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3, with the odds remaining largely stable.

In second place, with more or less the same odds compared to our last analysis a week ago, is Croatia. Baby Lasagna and ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim‘ will go all the way for the Croats’ maiden win, with bookies offering odds of between 3.75 and 4.5.

A short distance behind Croatia is Italy, who have moved back up to third place. A day before the Italian team’s first rehearsal in Malmö, the competition’s performance so far has boosted Angelina Mango‘s chances with “La Noia“, as now at almost all bookmakers the odds of an Italian victory have dropped significantly. Between 5 and 6 is offered for the Italian victory for those who believe in the potential of the talented young performer.

Fourth is currently Ukraine, whose maximum odds of winning are exactly the same as those of the fifth-ranked country, the Netherlands. However, a closer look at the table reveals that almost all bookers agree that the Netherlands‘ rehearsal was probably the worst among the favourites in the contest, which is why they are now offering it at a higher yield.

On the contrary, the momentum is much more favourable for Ukraine, whose first rehearsal was one of the top of the 31 countries taking to the stage for the first time. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 7.5 and 10, while the Netherlands‘ win is currently being bet between 5 and 10.

Top 10

With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place is still France, who have consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane.

In seventh place with a steady upward trend is Israel. Having, admittedly, one of the best rehearsals we have seen so far, Eden Golan and “Hurricane” are on the verge of sixth place and it may be a matter of a few hours before they overtake France. Israel‘s win is offered at odds between 15 and 21, down by almost half on our last analysis.

Eighth-placed Greece are among the winners in the early rehearsals. Marina Satti‘s very good rehearsal has brought down Greece’s odds of victory at most of the betting companies. Thus, now a possible victory of “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 21 and 34, slightly lower compared to our analysis before the first rehearsals.

The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have remained firmly in ninth place over the last week. As many as 67 times the stakes are returned for Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“, with bookers’ opinions divided over the fate of this entry more than any other Eurovision 2024 song.

A “new entry” in the top ten is now Norway, which took advantage of the fall of Belgium and Lithuania, climbing into the Top 10 after more than two months inside the Top 10. Should Gåte win this year’s Eurovision with “Ulveham“, people who bet on them will get up to 101 times their money back.

First semi-final

As part of this analysis, we will also take a first look at the odds of qualifying for the grand final. We start with the first semi-final, whose participating countries took to the stage of Malmö Arena for the second time today and will return on Monday for the rehearsals of the shows.

Four countries are considered a given to qualify, with Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Finland offered by bookers at odds of under 1.10. It is telling that the odds on the top four countries in particular return almost nothing to those who bet on them. For example, in the event that someone bets ten euros on their qualification, they will only make a profit of fifty euro cents on the best one.

The countries following the top four countries also seem to have a very big chance of qualifying for the grand final. Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland have over 80% chances of qualifying, with their eventual qualification being bet at odds of close to 1.20-1.25.

Poland seem to be in a league of their own, seen as the eighth favourite to qualify for the grand final on May 11. Luna‘s qualification is offered at odds of around 1.30-1.36, with a clear distance between them and both the leading and trailing countries.

A battle is expected for the last two tickets to Saturday’s grand final, with four countries battling it out. Serbia have the edge over that group of four countries, with bookers offering any qualification for Teya Dora close to 1.5. Portugal and Australia are next, both being played at exactly the same odds, between 1.5 and 1.73, with bookmakers unable to give either country a qualification advantage.

Less likely compared to the aforementioned countries is Slovenia, whose eventual qualification, despite being seen as the 12th seed to qualify from this semi-final, returns less than 2 times the stake. One understands that the differences between them are marginal and, therefore, qualification will be decided on the margin.

The following countries, namely Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, are considered less likely to qualify. More chances of qualification for the Azeris are being played between 2.38 and 3.25, with bookers not ruling out the surprise. Conversely, Moldova and Iceland are far and away in the bottom two spots having the least chance of qualification.

Second semi-final

Regarding the second semi-final, things seem to be clearer. Sixteen countries are involved in this semi-final, with ten of them being played at odds of less than 2. You can see how bookers seem to have easily settled on the top ten that will qualify for the final.

Switzerland, Netherlands, Greece, Greece, Norway, Armenia and Israel are seen by bookmakers as certain to qualify, with their qualification returning up to 1.1 times the stake. It is understandable that with six out of ten countries being taken for granted to qualify for Saturday’s grand final, things become more difficult for the remaining ten.

Much the same is true of Belgium, Austria and Estonia, with bookies offering the possibility of them making the final of this year’s competition between 1.20 and 1.28.

Rounding out the top ten is tenth-placed Georgia, who are in a league of their own and it looks like it’s time to break their negative streak of exclusions since 2016. At odds of between 1.33 and 1.4, Georgia are on offer, with the possibility of qualification being the most prevalent.

And we move on to the other six semi-final countries, which are considered by bookies as underdogs for qualification. Clearly more likely are Denmark and Albania, who should be considered anything but out of the running, with their qualification odds at close to 2.40 and 2.75 respectively.

Finally, Latvia, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic seem to be “boiling in the same pot”, whose qualification quadruples, quintuples and sixfold the stakes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg

Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!

Eurovision 2024: Which rehearsal had the most views on the fourth day?

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Yesterday, first rehearsals continued dynamically, with the Malmö Arena hosting the last eight countries of the second semifinal! Be sure to also read our article from yesterday regarding the views of the eight countries that completed their rehearsals on Monday.

However, as we know on TikTok, all the first rehearsals are uploaded. Apart from their performances, we’ll also get a sneak peek backstage before they take the stage for the first time in a video of about one minute.

One of the many features of TikTok is the ability to add songs to each user’s video creation. However, the TikTok algorithm is usually able to detect the song used in the video, assign it to the correct track, and then include it in the total number of videos where that sound has been used. Based on this capability, the most popular songs before rehearsals were from the Netherlands and Italy. Will they receive the same promotion as before?

In less than 24 hours (May 1, 2024, time 16:35 CET), since the first clip from the rehearsals was uploaded, we have a indicative sample of which rehearsal was favored by the audience (here it should be noted that the videos were uploaded one after the other with a one and a half hour interval and there was a significant delay in their publication).

The rehearsals that had the most views are:

  1. Netherlands: Joost – Europapa – 1.8 million views
  2. Belgium: Mustii – Before The Party Is Over – 450 thousand views
  3. Georgia: Nutsa – FireFighter – 426 thousand views
  4. Israel: Eden Golan – Hurricane – 415.9 thousand views
  5. Latvia: Dons – Hollow – 297 thousand views
  6. Estonia: 5MIINUST x Puuluup – (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi – 206 thousand views
  7. San Marino: Megara – 11:11 – 183.5 thousand views
  8. Norway: Gåte – Ulveham – 178.2 thousand views

With this small sample, we can infer that:

  • The Netherlands is indeed one of the major contenders for victory, hence rightfully gathering so many views. As it has made a huge leap, leaving Belgium behind by four times in views. Joost is expected to soon surpass Greece in views, but for now Marina Satti holds the lead.
  • There is a significant gap between the fourth and fifth positions, indicating that the last four countries did not impress much with their stage presence.
  • It’s surprising that Norway ranks last in views, considering it has the most unique song and vocals of the competition. There is a possibility of a recovery in views since their rehearsal was delayed in being published.

The top five countries with the most views from the four days are as follows:

  1. Greece: Marina Satti – ZARI – 2.3 million views
  2. Netherlands: Joost – Europapa – 1.8 million views
  3. Poland: LUNA – The Tower –1.3 million views
  4. Serbia: Teya Dora – Ramonda – 929.1 thousand views
  5. Ukraine: alyona alyona & Jerry Heil – Teressa & Maria – 876.6 thousand views

TikTok has played a significant role in the success of Eurovision songs in recent years. For example, Duncan Laurence’s winning entry “Arcade” became a global hit a year after winning the competition when it was used in over a million videos on TikTok. One of the earliest TikTok successes from Eurovision was Getter Jaani’s “Rockefeller Street”, which went viral on the platform in 2018 and has since been used in over two million videos. Let’s not forget that Armenia’s entry in 2022 by Rosa Linn with “Snap” gained over a billion views on the platform. Finally, Norway’s entry last year gained significant worldwide publicity months before the competition week, where it secured fifth place.

For detailed information about the rehearsals, you can check out our related articles:

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Georgia: Exclusive footage from Nutsa Buzaladze’s first rehearsal!

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Today, Nutsa Buzaladze, the Georgian representative in Eurovision 2024, stepped for the first time on the stage of Malmö Arena for her first technical rehearsal.

Following the conclusion of Nutsa’s rehearsal, GPB, the Georgian participating broadcaster, shared a backstage video on its social media, along with exclusive photos. Specifically ,we can enjoy more footage from Nutsa’s rehearsal.

The second rehearsal of Georgia will take place on Friday May 3rd, when we will have a clearer picture of what we will see from Nutsa Buzaladze on the Eurovision stage, as we will have the official TV snippet.

Source: GPB

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Eurovision 2024: Georgia’s First Rehearsal!

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After the first rehearsals of Latvia and San Marino, it is time to move to the Caucasus region and welcome Georgia on the stage of Malmö. This year Georgia is represented by the talented Nutsa Buzaladze, one of Georgia’s most famous singers and songwriters, with her song “Firefighter“. It is time to set the stage on fire!

Who is Nutsa?

Buzaladze was born in Tbilisi in 1997, but she grew up in Turkey. She started singing even from the age of five years old, when she performed as a member of a children’s group. Later, at the age of eight, she began taking piano lessons as well.

Moreover, Nutsa began her solo career back in 2011 when she competed in Georgia’s Got Talent, while three years later, she gained international attention as she represented Georgia in the New Wave Music Festival, held in Latvia, where she won. She has also taken part in The Voice of Turkey, where she collaborated with her coach, Hadise, who represented Turkey back in 2009 in Moscow with “Düm Tek Tek”. Additionally, she has also taken part in the Georgian version of Your Face Sounds Familiar.

Furthermore, in 2017 Buzaladze released the song “White Horses Run“, which she placed second in the Georgian selection for the Eurovision Song Contest 2017 with. Two years later, she released her debut album, Nutsa22, containing covers of Georgian songs and original English ones. Nutsa has also participated in the 21st season of the American Idol, in which she finished in the top 12.

Last but not least, she has also lived in Los Angeles, and since 2024 Dubai is her permanent residence, where she had also performed at the Expo 2020, the Dubai National Theatre and the Dubai Opera.

The rehearsal:

Time for Georgia to rehearse, with Nutsa Buzaldze singing her dance track Firefighter. She’s competed in a singing competition or two, including American Idol in 2023, where she made the final. Yes, actual American Idol. She did a duet of Can’t Get You Out Of My Head with Kylie Minogue. This feels like a Eurovision fever dream, but there’s video evidence and everything.

Anyway, we know from pre-party season that Nutsa has some powerhouse vocals, and she’s definitely brought them to Malmö. She starts alone on stage on a raised plinth, under a red spotlight and backed by red smoky graphics. At the end of the first verse she’s joined on buy four male dancers in black (with shirts) – it’s a VERY polished, high-energy dance routine with the LED graphics building through the song into sparking balls of flame.

Nutsa’s costume is a shiny gold mini-dress paired with boots – she doesn’t miss a note, despite the energetic routine.

PYRO UPDATE: SO. MANY. FLAMES!

Below you can watch a snippet of Nutsa’s very first rehearsal on stage of Malmö:

https://www.tiktok.com/@eurovision/video/7363658824634420512?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7345954161927734816

Georgia’s second rehearsal is set to take place on Friday the 3rd of May, when we will get a clearer image of what Nutsa and her dancers have prepared to present on stage.

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Source: Eurovision.tv

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Eurovision 2024: The schedule of the fourth day of rehearsals (Tuesday 30 April)!

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Malmö Arena opened its gates on Saturday for the rehearsals of the 37 participating countries of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, and the action continues today with the remaining eight countries of the second semi-final taking to the stage for the first time.

With no major changes expected this year, the rehearsals for Eurovision 2024 are expected to take place in the upcoming week. Rehearsals are divided into two phases, the first which will run for four days from today until Tuesday 30/04 and will include the initial first rehearsals of all countries taking part in the two semi-finals of the contest and the second which will run from Wednesday 01/05 until Saturday 04/05 and will include the second rehearsals of the countries in the two semi-finals as well as both rehearsals of the countries competing directly in the Final, namely the Big 5 and the host Sweden.

Last year’s changes in the way the rehearsals are covered are maintained this year, as the Press Centre opens on the Monday after the first and second rehearsals.

As a consequence, the information we will have for the first week of the contest will come exclusively from the material provided by the EBU to accredited journalists, as well as through the Live Blogs on Reddit and the short videos on TikTok.

Today’s Schedule

Eight countries are set to take to the stage at Malmö Arena for their first rehearsal, with Latvia and Dons “kicking off” on Saturday morning. The detailed schedule for the fourth day of rehearsals of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest is as follows (Mentioned in CET/Swedish Time):

 

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Listen to the acoustic version of Georgia’s song, in “A Little Bit More”!

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Just like last year, some time before the first rehearsals of the countries, the show called “A Little Bit More” aired on the official Eurovision YouTube channel.Advertisement Read more