Just like last year, some time before the first rehearsals of the countries, the show called “A Little Bit More” aired on the official Eurovision YouTube channel. Read more
The favourite column of many of you returns, as the betting analyses for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest are back again.
With less than a week to go until the first Eurovision 2024 semi-final and after the fourth day of rehearsals, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.
Largely unchanged is the situation at the top of the betting tables, with Nemo and Switzerland seen as the heavy favourites to win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3, with the odds remaining largely stable.
In second place, with more or less the same odds compared to our last analysis a week ago, is Croatia. Baby Lasagna and ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim‘ will go all the way for the Croats’ maiden win, with bookies offering odds of between 3.75 and 4.5.
A short distance behind Croatia is Italy, who have moved back up to third place. A day before the Italian team’s first rehearsal in Malmö, the competition’s performance so far has boosted Angelina Mango‘s chances with “La Noia“, as now at almost all bookmakers the odds of an Italian victory have dropped significantly. Between 5 and 6 is offered for the Italian victory for those who believe in the potential of the talented young performer.
Fourth is currently Ukraine, whose maximum odds of winning are exactly the same as those of the fifth-ranked country, the Netherlands. However, a closer look at the table reveals that almost all bookers agree that the Netherlands‘ rehearsal was probably the worst among the favourites in the contest, which is why they are now offering it at a higher yield.
On the contrary, the momentum is much more favourable for Ukraine, whose first rehearsal was one of the top of the 31 countries taking to the stage for the first time. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 7.5 and 10, while the Netherlands‘ win is currently being bet between 5 and 10.
With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place is still France, who have consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane.
In seventh place with a steady upward trend is Israel. Having, admittedly, one of the best rehearsals we have seen so far, Eden Golan and “Hurricane” are on the verge of sixth place and it may be a matter of a few hours before they overtake France. Israel‘s win is offered at odds between 15 and 21, down by almost half on our last analysis.
Eighth-placed Greece are among the winners in the early rehearsals. Marina Satti‘s very good rehearsal has brought down Greece’s odds of victory at most of the betting companies. Thus, now a possible victory of “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 21 and 34, slightly lower compared to our analysis before the first rehearsals.
The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have remained firmly in ninth place over the last week. As many as 67 times the stakes are returned for Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“, with bookers’ opinions divided over the fate of this entry more than any other Eurovision 2024 song.
A “new entry” in the top ten is now Norway, which took advantage of the fall of Belgium and Lithuania, climbing into the Top 10 after more than two months inside the Top 10. Should Gåte win this year’s Eurovision with “Ulveham“, people who bet on them will get up to 101 times their money back.
As part of this analysis, we will also take a first look at the odds of qualifying for the grand final. We start with the first semi-final, whose participating countries took to the stage of Malmö Arena for the second time today and will return on Monday for the rehearsals of the shows.
Four countries are considered a given to qualify, with Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Finland offered by bookers at odds of under 1.10. It is telling that the odds on the top four countries in particular return almost nothing to those who bet on them. For example, in the event that someone bets ten euros on their qualification, they will only make a profit of fifty euro cents on the best one.
The countries following the top four countries also seem to have a very big chance of qualifying for the grand final. Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland have over 80% chances of qualifying, with their eventual qualification being bet at odds of close to 1.20-1.25.
Poland seem to be in a league of their own, seen as the eighth favourite to qualify for the grand final on May 11. Luna‘s qualification is offered at odds of around 1.30-1.36, with a clear distance between them and both the leading and trailing countries.
A battle is expected for the last two tickets to Saturday’s grand final, with four countries battling it out. Serbia have the edge over that group of four countries, with bookers offering any qualification for Teya Dora close to 1.5. Portugal and Australia are next, both being played at exactly the same odds, between 1.5 and 1.73, with bookmakers unable to give either country a qualification advantage.
Less likely compared to the aforementioned countries is Slovenia, whose eventual qualification, despite being seen as the 12th seed to qualify from this semi-final, returns less than 2 times the stake. One understands that the differences between them are marginal and, therefore, qualification will be decided on the margin.
The following countries, namely Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, are considered less likely to qualify. More chances of qualification for the Azeris are being played between 2.38 and 3.25, with bookers not ruling out the surprise. Conversely, Moldova and Iceland are far and away in the bottom two spots having the least chance of qualification.
Regarding the second semi-final, things seem to be clearer. Sixteen countries are involved in this semi-final, with ten of them being played at odds of less than 2. You can see how bookers seem to have easily settled on the top ten that will qualify for the final.
Switzerland, Netherlands, Greece, Greece, Norway, Armenia and Israel are seen by bookmakers as certain to qualify, with their qualification returning up to 1.1 times the stake. It is understandable that with six out of ten countries being taken for granted to qualify for Saturday’s grand final, things become more difficult for the remaining ten.
Much the same is true of Belgium, Austria and Estonia, with bookies offering the possibility of them making the final of this year’s competition between 1.20 and 1.28.
Rounding out the top ten is tenth-placed Georgia, who are in a league of their own and it looks like it’s time to break their negative streak of exclusions since 2016. At odds of between 1.33 and 1.4, Georgia are on offer, with the possibility of qualification being the most prevalent.
And we move on to the other six semi-final countries, which are considered by bookies as underdogs for qualification. Clearly more likely are Denmark and Albania, who should be considered anything but out of the running, with their qualification odds at close to 2.40 and 2.75 respectively.
Finally, Latvia, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic seem to be “boiling in the same pot”, whose qualification quadruples, quintuples and sixfold the stakes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg
Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!
Just like last year, some time before the first rehearsals of the countries, the show called “A Little Bit More” aired on the official Eurovision YouTube channel.
So, for all this time before the rehearsals, Eurovision TV will upload different performances of the artists, like different versions of their songs, or covers of songs from other artists.
The last two performances of today, are two cover songs. The German representative, Isaak sings “Can’t Wait Untill Tonigh” by Max Mutzke (Germany 2004- 8th place), and Aiko, the representative of Czehcia singing “God is a Woman” by Ariana Grande:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5V-SDjOwmc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2CejlkiwU
Stay tuned on Eurovisionfun for all the news regarding the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, in Malmö!
This year’s Eurovision Village will be situated in Folkets Park in central Malmö from May 4th to May 11th. There will be two stages, one larger for special events, and concerts with Eurovision and guest artists, and a smaller stage for more intimate performances. Several participating acts of Eurovision 2024 will perform at the Euphoria stage on the following dates:
Eurovision Village will serve as a dedicated hub for Eurovision enthusiasts and locals also hosting independent cultural events organized by local organizations.
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Source: Malmö Stad
Every year since 2007, OGAE International conducts the OGAE Poll, which includes the votes of its members from 42 different countries. After thirty-five countries have voted, it is now turn for Albania, Ireland and EC Germany to cast their votes.
In detail, the 15 members of OGAE Albania voted as following:
The 320 members of OGAE Ireland voted as following:
Last, the 186 members of EC Germany voted as following:
The results following the votes of thirty-eight member clubs are the following:
Croatia is in the lead with two points margin, followed by Italy and Switzerland.
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Every year since 2007, OGAE International conducts the OGAE Poll, which includes the votes of its members from 42 different countries. After thirty-two countries have voted, it is now turn for Germany, Serbia and Sweden to cast their votes.
In detail, the 353 members of OGAE Germany voted as following:
The 40 members of OGAE Serbia voted as following:
Last, the 163 members of OGAE Sweden voted as following:
The results following the votes of thirty-five member clubs are the following:
Italy is in the lead with one point margin, followed by Croatia and Switzerland.
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We are two days away from the start of the rehearsals in Malmö and that’s why one of Eurovisionfun‘s most loved and talked about columns is back, with the Eurovision 2024 betting analysis back again.
As you prepare for the pivotal days ahead with the climax of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest celebrations, the bookers are already getting down to business, with the Eurovision 2024 winner section already on offer across all bookmakers. So, we’re taking the opportunity to bring you the so far for the next contest.
A battle for four seems to be shaping up in this year’s contest, with Switzerland, Croatia, the Netherlands and Italy having a distinct lead over their pursuers and Ukraine ‘losing ground’ recently after the parties.
More specifically, at the top, now having a clear lead over its competitors, is Switzerland. With two 24 hours to go until the start of rehearsals in the Swedish south, Nemo‘s “The Code” starts from pole-position to win Switzerland‘s coveted third victory in its almost 70-year presence in the Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3.1, becoming the first to break the triple barrier this year.
In second place remains Croatia, who have been firmly established in the top two of the betting tables for the past two months, with their odds remaining largely stable after this year’s pre-parties. Baby Lasagna and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” will go all the way for a maiden Croatian victory, with bookers offering odds of between 3.25 and 4.6.
The absolute hit on Western and Central European radios, the Netherlands, continues its rally up the betting tables. Joost Klein‘s “Europapa” has made an impression and is sweeping the charts and streams across much of the Old Continent, now bringing the Netherlands into fourth place. We told you long ago through this column about the dynamics of this entry, which was one of the dark horses of this year’s contest. Now in third place and offered at odds of between 4.25 and 5.5, it is anything but a dark horse, with betting companies recognising its potential and moving it up two places.
Fourth, with a slightly downward trend, but within a fairly close distance of the three leading countries, is Italy. Angelina Mango with “La Noia” may have lost one place compared to our last analysis, nevertheless the chances of a second Italian victory in this decade are highly respected. Between 5.75 and 7.5 is offered for Italian victory for those who believe in Angelina Mango‘s potential.
The top five is now completed by Ukraine, who have lost the momentum they had at the beginning of this year’s Eurovision season when they were considered the early favourites to win in Malmö. With the gap between the four leading countries having widened, bookers are offering Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil’s victory at the highest odds we have seen offered during this year’s Eurovision season. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 8.5 and 17.
With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place, France has quietly risen to sixth, and has consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane, with France gaining one place in the last few days.
Among the gainers in recent weeks is Israel, which has moved up to seventh place. Eden Golan and “Hurricane” have gained four places in the last period, steadily gaining momentum as evidenced by the reactions she is garnering on social media on the official Eurovision account. Israel’s victory is offered at odds between 21 and 36.
Greece is still in eighth place. The “tailwind” after the release of Marina Satti‘s “ZARI” brought our country inside the Top 10, with Greece now stabilizing within it and having a safety margin over its pursuers.
Marina Satti‘s win is currently being played at odds between 21 and 41, slightly higher compared to our last analysis, with bookers, however, giving a vote of confidence to the Greek entry.
The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have now moved up to ninth place, being five places higher compared to our last analysis. Up to 51 times the stake is returned on Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“.
Rounding out the top ten is Belgium, who have been the disappointment so far this Eurovision season. Mustii‘s pre-party performances with his mildly unacceptable rendition of “Before the Party’s Over” has brought Belgium into tenth place, showing a drop of four places compared to our last analysis. Belgium’s victory is currently being bet on odds between 26 and 67.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg
Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!
The 68th Eurovision Song Contest introduces a significant change in how the Grand Final running order is determined. Artists now have more options, with a new category introduced to give producers greater flexibility in shaping the lineup.
In March, it was announced that Malmö would see some major changes to enhance the Eurovision Song Contest‘s excitement. Following the revelation that the “Big 5” would perform their songs in full during the Semi-Finals and that fans could start voting as soon as the first artist hits the stage in the Grand Final, another significant change has emerged!
In recent years, qualifying countries from the Semi-Finals and the Big 5 have randomly selected which half of the Grand Final they will perform in. Subsequently, the show’s producers decided where within the First Half (songs 1 to 13) or Second Half (songs 14 to 26) of the Grand Final those acts would perform.
This year, a new category called “Producer’s Choice” will be introduced.
Host broadcaster SVT revealed that 25 of the 26 artists in the Grand Final (Sweden already has position 1) will have the option to choose First Half, Second Half, or Producer’s Choice through a random draw.
If an artist selects Producer’s Choice, the show producers will have the discretion to place that song anywhere in either the First or Second Half of the running order.
This change means there will be 6 slots available to pick in the First Half of the running order, 6 slots in the Second Half, and 13 Producer’s Choice slots.
The purpose of this change is to provide producers with more opportunities to ensure all songs in the Grand Final stand out and to create the most dynamic running order possible.
Christer Björkman, this year’s Contest Producer, elaborated on the rationale behind the change:
“It’s all about creating the best TV show possible and giving all artists a chance to shine. Adding the flexibility of Producer’s Choice allows me to create an even better flow of different tempos and an even more thrilling Grand Final.”
The Big 5 will select either First Half, Second Half, or Producer’s Choice after their second Rehearsal on Saturday, May 4, live during a Reddit AMA. Then, each of the 10 qualifiers from the First Semi-Final on Tuesday, May 7, will draw one of those three options live on the Official Eurovision Song Contest TikTok channel immediately after the show.
The 10 qualifying artists from the Second Semi-Final will draw from the remaining options live on TikTok after the show ends on Thursday, May 9.
Once all 25 options are chosen, producers will compile the running order for the Grand Final of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest in the early hours of Friday, May 10. It will then be revealed on the Contest’s website and social media channels.
The last time such a change to the running order was made was also in Malmö, in 2013.
Before 2013, the running order of the Grand Final was determined via a random draw. However, in 2013, host broadcaster SVT initiated a change to create a more entertaining evening of television for viewers. This format has remained in place every year since, with the introduction of the Producer’s Choice element in 2024 being the first major change in over a decade.
Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest developments!
Source: Eurovision.tv
The Model is a project by Eurovoix aimed at predicting the results of the Eurovision contest, based on betting odds, fan voting online, app usage, song views and streamings on electronic platforms, historical voting patterns, and even the position in the running order. It also takes into account other external factors such as political developments that could influence the outcome, or the nationality of an artist.
As the computational prediction model is constructed based on contemporary data, which dynamically change during the pre-party period, its recently updated version predicts Switzerland as the winner instead of Italy.
Ukraine and The Netherlands continue to be the winners of the two semi-finals, while in this edition, Greece and Cyprus also advance to the final, both with an upward trajectory.
The change observed here is the qualification of Georgia for the Grand Final and the displacement of Denmark among the non-qualifiers. Clearly, Nutsa Buzaladze’s outstanding performance at the London Eurovision Party last weekend won over the fans and gave a boost to the Georgian entry.
Perhaps the most challenging in terms of prediction, the voting outcome crowns Switzerland as the big winner of Eurovision 2024. According to this computational model, Greece will finish 13th (10th in both televoting and juries), while Cyprus will place 19th (21st with the juries and 16th in the televote).
What do you think of The Model’s results? Will they be confirmed in May? Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the updates!
Source: eurovoix.com
TV producers Stefan Raab and Daniel Rosemann have pitched a new idea to the four major German TV channels (ARD, ZDF, RTL and ProSieben) to work together to select Germany’s Eurovision entry.
This program will include ZDF, RTL and ProSieben each hosting a semi-final with the finalists progressing to the grand final, broadcasted on Das Erste. All networks are interested, but no final decision will be made until this year’s competition is over.
According to the plan, all the shows will be produced by the same studio. However, each broadcaster can organize their evening according to their own ideas. The winners of these three programs will compete in the final at Erste to get their ticket for Eurovision .
Whether ARD will select its own candidates before the German final is negotiable. There are still different ideas about what exactly the joint project will bring from the participating broadcasters, such as the details of the organization and the amount of money.
There is also a reason why the decision will take some time. They want to see how Germany will perform at this year’s Eurovision in Malmö in May. A success of Isaak would give the prospect of a new attempt.
Germany will be represented this year by Isaak with the song “Always On The Run” .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twhq3S4YHdQ
Will Germany manage to avoid the last place in the final? Tell us in the comments below!
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Source: DWDL.de
