The Model: Switzerland Tipped for Victory with One Week Remaining

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With the Grand Final of Eurovision 2024 just around the corner, The Model, Eurovoix’s data-driven simulation of the contest, is favoring Switzerland as the potential winner.

Drawing from diverse data sources including current betting odds, community rankings, and polls, The Model maintains that Nemo and their song ‘The Code‘ are the frontrunners to clinch victory in this year’s competition.

As per the latest simulation, Switzerland is anticipated to accumulate a total of 454 points, potentially marking the lowest winning total since the inception of the new voting system in 2016. Trailing closely behind are Ukraine and Italy, both projected to score 422 points and sharing the second position.

Utilizing data from bookmakers’ odds, community rankings, and more, The Model endeavors to provide accurate Eurovision predictions. For a deeper understanding of its methodology, check out a brief explanation here:

As the contest draws nearer, The Model adjusts its projections to reflect evolving dynamics, considering factors such as show running orders, political biases, and tactical voting. This meticulous approach aims to generate realistic forecasts of the final outcome.

So, if The Model were to be entirely accurate, what scenarios does it predict for Eurovision 2024?

Semi-Final One

With rehearsals underway, fans and bookmakers gain insights into each country’s staging plans, influencing the shifting landscape of winning probabilities. Today’s updated projections from The Model reflect these changes, presenting a significantly altered picture from previous assessments.

Ukraine retains its lead in the first semi-final, with Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil‘s song “Teresa & Maria” receiving a significant boost in odds following the reveal of their staging. Following closely behind is Baby Lasagna and Croatia, securing the second spot despite climbing to first place in the overall odds.

Noteworthy is Ireland, rapidly climbing in the rankings following the unveiling of Bambie Thug‘s rehearsal clip for “Doomsday Blue“. With shortened odds, The Model now predicts Ireland to comfortably secure 135 points in the first semi-final, marking a return to the final stage.

Silvester Belt‘s “Luktelk” for Lithuania follows closely with 115 points, while Finland and Cyprus tie at 94 points in fifth and sixth places. Despite being high-energy songs, both “No Rules” and “Liar” benefit from the removal of juries this year, enhancing their chances of garnering public support.

Semi-Final Two

In the second semi-final, although there have been fewer changes, The Model adapts its projection to align with evolving odds, polls, and other factors. Notably, bookmakers display higher confidence in the outcome of Semi-Final Two compared to Semi-Final One, a sentiment echoed by The Model.

Joost Klein is forecasted to triumph in this semi-final with his hardstyle anthem “Europapa“, closing the show with a bang. Despite some critique of the staging, The Model anticipates overwhelming support for the song translating into substantial points on Thursday.

Trailing behind Joost Klein is Nemo with “The Code“, securing a robust 165 points. While Switzerland‘s position as a favorite to win the overall contest remains unchanged, Nemo‘s projection reflects the advantageous impact of their later performance slot in the running order.

Grand Final

In the absence of the running order for the final, The Model treats each song as if performing in the same position, except for Sweden, who has already drawn the first slot. Despite this limitation, The Model projects a compelling showdown in the Grand Final.

In this simulation, Israel leads the pack in the jury vote with their poignant ballad “Hurricane“, narrowly surpassing Switzerland. However, the public vote paints a different picture, with Ukraine emerging victorious, closely trailed by Switzerland and Italy.

Ultimately, Switzerland secures victory with 454 points, leveraging its strong performances in both the jury and public votes. While surprises abound in The Model’s projections, only the final show will reveal whether these predictions materialize into reality.

With just one week left until Eurovision 2024, The Model continues to refine its projections. Stay tuned for predictions for each show next week, and after the events, we’ll compare The Model’s forecasts with the actual results, offering insights into its accuracy.

As the excitement builds, all eyes are on Switzerland as the projected favorite to emerge victorious. The countdown to Eurovision 2024 is on, and anticipation is at an all-time high as fans eagerly await the grand finale.

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the latest developments regarding the 68th Eurovision Song Contest!

Source: Eurovoix

Eurovision 2024: Watch the exclusive TV footage from today’s second rehearsals!

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The sixth day of technical rehearsals for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö is now over, and the preparations are heating up. Following their first technical rehearsals, the first nine countries competing in the second semi-final took the stage of Malmö Arena for their second round of rehearsals.

The second rehearsals allowed the delegations to iron out any issues from the first round of rehearsals and gave the artists a greater sense of security and comfort on the Eurovision main stage.

We know very little about what this year’s artists have prepared for the Eurovision stage because accredited journalists are not permitted to watch both the first and second rehearsals. The EBU has just posted a recap of today’s rehearsals on YouTube via the official Eurovision channel. More precisely, we’ll get to see the exclusive TV footage of today’s rehearsals.

The countries that had their second rehearsals today were the following:

  1. Malta
  2. Albania
  3. Greece
  4. Switzerland
  5. Czechia
  6. Austria
  7. Denmark
  8. Armenia
  9. Latvia

You can watch the recap of today’s rehearsals below:

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Eurovision 2024: Austria’s Second Rehearsal!

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The moment for Austria’s second rehearsal has officially arrived, as Kaleen sets the mood with her song “We Will Rave”! 

Who is Kaleen? 

Performing has always been an integral part of Kaleen’s life, considering she has been doing it ever since she was little and has gained great experience as a singer, dancer and choreographer. Thus, she has shined at numerous national, European and international dance championships. 

However, Kaleen is no stranger to the Eurovision Song Contest. She contributed as a stand-in singer for the rehearsals of Eurovision 2018 and also, as a dancer and choreographer for the interval acts. Moreover, she supported a few acts at last year’s edition and, as for Junior Eurovision, Kaleen took the responsibility of the creative direction of Spain and Bulgaria in 2021 and the overall stage direction in 2022. 

 The rehearsal 

Τhere’s an inverted pyramid made of metal scaffolding hanging above the middle of the stage, that shoots lasers, giving the stage a warehouse rave vibe. She is wearing a silver sparkly leotard and thigh boots, different in comparison with the ones of the first rehearsal. She has four male backing dancers, wearing black cargo pants, sleeveless jackets and oversized wraparound shades. With Kaleen they deliver a full-on dance routine that covers the whole stage.

Austria Second Rehearsal/ Credit: Alma Bengtsson/EBU

There’s also a RUM-DE-DUM-DA-DA hip swivel move. Smoke and steam jets, and Kaleen tried a different (and much fluffier) white coat. No idea which will make it through to second rehearsals – we’ll find out later in the week!

After today’s second rehearsals a recap video will be published on the official Youtube channel! Stay tuned!

The Dress Rehearsal for Austria and the rest of Semi Final 2 is scheduled for Wednesday the 8th of May!

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Source: eurovision.tv

Eurovision 2024: The schedule of the sixth day of rehearsals (Thursday 2 May)!

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With the first rehearsals for the participating countries of the two semi-finals complete, the action continues today with the countries that will take part in the first half of the second semi-final taking to the stage for the second time, while the Big 5 and host Sweden will make their debut on the Malmö Arena stage.

With no major changes expected this year, the rehearsals for Eurovision 2024 are expected to take place in the upcoming week. Rehearsals are divided into two phases, the first which will run for four days from today until Tuesday 30/04 and will include the initial first rehearsals of all countries taking part in the two semi-finals of the contest and the second which will run from Wednesday 01/05 until Saturday 04/05 and will include the second rehearsals of the countries in the two semi-finals as well as both rehearsals of the countries competing directly in the Final, namely the Big 5 and the host Sweden.

Last year’s changes in the way the rehearsals are covered are maintained this year, as the Press Centre opens on the Monday after the first and second rehearsals.

As a consequence, the information we will have for the first week of the contest will come exclusively from the material provided by the EBU to accredited journalists, as well as through the Live Blogs on Reddit and the short videos on TikTok.

Today’s Schedule

Fifteen countries are set to take to the stage at Malmö Arena today, with Malta and Sarah Bonnici “kicking off” on Thursday morning. The detailed schedule for the sixth day of rehearsals of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest is as follows (Mentioned in CET/Swedish Time):

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Eurovision 2024: The odds after the completion of the first rehearsals!

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The favourite column of many of you returns, as the betting analyses for the 68th Eurovision Song Contest are back again.

With less than a week to go until the first Eurovision 2024 semi-final and after the fourth day of rehearsals, we take a look at the betting companies’ odds regarding each country’s chances of winning this year’s contest.

Top 5

Largely unchanged is the situation at the top of the betting tables, with Nemo and Switzerland seen as the heavy favourites to win the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. Switzerland‘s victory is now being bet at odds of between 2.63 and 3, with the odds remaining largely stable.

In second place, with more or less the same odds compared to our last analysis a week ago, is Croatia. Baby Lasagna and ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim‘ will go all the way for the Croats’ maiden win, with bookies offering odds of between 3.75 and 4.5.

A short distance behind Croatia is Italy, who have moved back up to third place. A day before the Italian team’s first rehearsal in Malmö, the competition’s performance so far has boosted Angelina Mango‘s chances with “La Noia“, as now at almost all bookmakers the odds of an Italian victory have dropped significantly. Between 5 and 6 is offered for the Italian victory for those who believe in the potential of the talented young performer.

Fourth is currently Ukraine, whose maximum odds of winning are exactly the same as those of the fifth-ranked country, the Netherlands. However, a closer look at the table reveals that almost all bookers agree that the Netherlands‘ rehearsal was probably the worst among the favourites in the contest, which is why they are now offering it at a higher yield.

On the contrary, the momentum is much more favourable for Ukraine, whose first rehearsal was one of the top of the 31 countries taking to the stage for the first time. Ukraine‘s fourth win in the Eurovision Song Contest is currently being bet at odds of between 7.5 and 10, while the Netherlands‘ win is currently being bet between 5 and 10.

Top 10

With the countries in the Top 5 having stood out in comparison to those below them in the betting tables, let’s take a look at the rest of the top ten. In sixth place is still France, who have consistently remained in or on the fringes of the top ten for most of this Eurovision season. Up to 21 times the stakes are returned by “Mon Amour” and Slimane.

In seventh place with a steady upward trend is Israel. Having, admittedly, one of the best rehearsals we have seen so far, Eden Golan and “Hurricane” are on the verge of sixth place and it may be a matter of a few hours before they overtake France. Israel‘s win is offered at odds between 15 and 21, down by almost half on our last analysis.

Eighth-placed Greece are among the winners in the early rehearsals. Marina Satti‘s very good rehearsal has brought down Greece’s odds of victory at most of the betting companies. Thus, now a possible victory of “ZARI” and Marina Satti is currently being played at odds between 21 and 34, slightly lower compared to our analysis before the first rehearsals.

The big winner in recent weeks has clearly been Ireland, who have remained firmly in ninth place over the last week. As many as 67 times the stakes are returned for Ireland’s win with Bambie Thug‘s “Doomsday Blue“, with bookers’ opinions divided over the fate of this entry more than any other Eurovision 2024 song.

A “new entry” in the top ten is now Norway, which took advantage of the fall of Belgium and Lithuania, climbing into the Top 10 after more than two months inside the Top 10. Should Gåte win this year’s Eurovision with “Ulveham“, people who bet on them will get up to 101 times their money back.

First semi-final

As part of this analysis, we will also take a first look at the odds of qualifying for the grand final. We start with the first semi-final, whose participating countries took to the stage of Malmö Arena for the second time today and will return on Monday for the rehearsals of the shows.

Four countries are considered a given to qualify, with Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Finland offered by bookers at odds of under 1.10. It is telling that the odds on the top four countries in particular return almost nothing to those who bet on them. For example, in the event that someone bets ten euros on their qualification, they will only make a profit of fifty euro cents on the best one.

The countries following the top four countries also seem to have a very big chance of qualifying for the grand final. Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland have over 80% chances of qualifying, with their eventual qualification being bet at odds of close to 1.20-1.25.

Poland seem to be in a league of their own, seen as the eighth favourite to qualify for the grand final on May 11. Luna‘s qualification is offered at odds of around 1.30-1.36, with a clear distance between them and both the leading and trailing countries.

A battle is expected for the last two tickets to Saturday’s grand final, with four countries battling it out. Serbia have the edge over that group of four countries, with bookers offering any qualification for Teya Dora close to 1.5. Portugal and Australia are next, both being played at exactly the same odds, between 1.5 and 1.73, with bookmakers unable to give either country a qualification advantage.

Less likely compared to the aforementioned countries is Slovenia, whose eventual qualification, despite being seen as the 12th seed to qualify from this semi-final, returns less than 2 times the stake. One understands that the differences between them are marginal and, therefore, qualification will be decided on the margin.

The following countries, namely Azerbaijan, Moldova and Iceland, are considered less likely to qualify. More chances of qualification for the Azeris are being played between 2.38 and 3.25, with bookers not ruling out the surprise. Conversely, Moldova and Iceland are far and away in the bottom two spots having the least chance of qualification.

Second semi-final

Regarding the second semi-final, things seem to be clearer. Sixteen countries are involved in this semi-final, with ten of them being played at odds of less than 2. You can see how bookers seem to have easily settled on the top ten that will qualify for the final.

Switzerland, Netherlands, Greece, Greece, Norway, Armenia and Israel are seen by bookmakers as certain to qualify, with their qualification returning up to 1.1 times the stake. It is understandable that with six out of ten countries being taken for granted to qualify for Saturday’s grand final, things become more difficult for the remaining ten.

Much the same is true of Belgium, Austria and Estonia, with bookies offering the possibility of them making the final of this year’s competition between 1.20 and 1.28.

Rounding out the top ten is tenth-placed Georgia, who are in a league of their own and it looks like it’s time to break their negative streak of exclusions since 2016. At odds of between 1.33 and 1.4, Georgia are on offer, with the possibility of qualification being the most prevalent.

And we move on to the other six semi-final countries, which are considered by bookies as underdogs for qualification. Clearly more likely are Denmark and Albania, who should be considered anything but out of the running, with their qualification odds at close to 2.40 and 2.75 respectively.

Finally, Latvia, San Marino, Malta and the Czech Republic seem to be “boiling in the same pot”, whose qualification quadruples, quintuples and sixfold the stakes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiGDvM14Kwg

Will Switzerland achieve its third victory in the Eurovision Song Contest with Nemo’s “The Code”? Tell us in the comments!

Stay tuned to Eurovisionfun for all the developments!

Eurovision 2024: Which rehearsal had the most views on the third day?

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Yesterday, rehearsals continued energetically, with the Malmö Arena hosting the first eight countries of the second semifinal! Be sure to also read our article from yesterday regarding the views of the eight countries that completed their rehearsals on Sunday.

However, as we know on TikTok, all the first rehearsals are uploaded. Apart from their performances, we’ll also get a sneak peek backstage before they take the stage for the first time in a video of about one minute.

One of the many features of TikTok is the ability to add songs to each user’s video creation. However, the TikTok algorithm is usually able to detect the song used in the video, assign it to the correct track, and then include it in the total number of videos where that sound has been used. Based on this capability, the most popular songs before rehearsals were from the Netherlands and Italy. Will they receive the same promotion as before?

In less than 24 hours (April 30, 2024, time  CET), since the first clip from the rehearsals was uploaded, we have a indicative sample of which rehearsal was favored by the audience (here it should be noted that the videos were uploaded one after the other with a one and a half hour interval and there was a significant delay in their publication).

The rehearsals that had the most views are:

  1. Greece: Marina Satti – ZARI – 1.6 million views
  2. Switzerland: Nemo – The Code – 391 thousand views
  3. Albania: Besa – TiTan – 221.7 thousand views
  4. Austria: Kaleen – We Will Rave – 199.4 thousand views
  5. Armenia: LADANIVA – Jako – 183 thousand views
  6. Malta: Sarah Bonnici – Loop –  175.3 thousand views
  7. Czechia: Aiko – Pedestal – 165.2 thousand views
  8. Denmark: SABA – SAND – 156.7 thousand views

With this small sample, we can infer that:

  • It’s worth noting that with the first rehearsal of the Greek entry has been published 18 hours prior, within this timeframe, ZARI achieved a record number of views compared to any other entry in previous years – where TikTok is used as a platform for posting snapshots of the first rehearsals. The Greek entry seems to have resonance across Europe as it has gathered 170 thousand likes.
  • Second in the ranking is the favorite for victory, Switzerland, which trails the Greek entry by 4 times in views.
  • Many rearrangements can occur between the fourth and eighth positions since there are countries whose rehearsals were published at the end of the day, resulting in them not receiving enough publicity.

The top six countries with the most views from the two days are as follows:

  1. Greece: Marina Satti – ZARI – 1.6 million views
  2. Poland: LUNA – The Tower – 1.2 milion views
  3. Serbia: Teya Dora – Ramonda – 842.2 thousand views
  4. Ukraine: alyona alyona & Jerry Heil – Teressa & Maria – 817.7 thousand views
  5. Croatia: Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim – 682.7 thousand views

TikTok has played a significant role in the success of Eurovision songs in recent years. For example, Duncan Laurence’s winning entry “Arcade” became a global hit a year after winning the competition when it was used in over a million videos on TikTok. One of the earliest TikTok successes from Eurovision was Getter Jaani’s “Rockefeller Street”, which went viral on the platform in 2018 and has since been used in over two million videos. Let’s not forget that Armenia’s entry in 2022 by Rosa Linn with “Snap” gained over a billion views on the platform. Finally, Norway’s entry last year gained significant worldwide publicity months before the competition week, where it secured fifth place.

For detailed information about the rehearsals, you can check out our related articles:

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Watch the performances of Ukraine, Austria, Latvia and Estonia in “A Little Bit More”!

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Just like last year, some time before the first rehearsals of the countries, the show called “A Little Bit More” aired on the official Eurovision YouTube channel.Advertisement

So, for all this time before the rehearsals, Eurovision TV will upload different performances of the artists, like different versions of their songs, or covers of songs from other artists.

In today’s videos, we have three covers of songs representing the countries this year:

Last video of the day, is the Latvian representative, Dons, singing a cover of “Over the Rainbow”, by Israel Kamakawiwo’ole:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwOeqlVmeuE

Stay tuned on Eurovisionfun for all the news regarding the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, in Malmö!

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Eurovision 2024: Austria’s First Rehearsal!

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The moment for Austria’s first rehearsal has officially arrived, as Kaleen sets the mood with her song “We Will Rave”! 

Who is Kaleen? 

Performing has always been an integral part of Kaleen’s life, considering she has been doing it ever since she was little and has gained great experience as a singer, dancer and choreographer. Thus, she has shined at numerous national, European and international dance championships. 

However, Kaleen is no stranger to the Eurovision Song Contest. She contributed as a stand-in singer for the rehearsals of Eurovision 2018 and also, as a dancer and choreographer for the interval acts. Moreover, she supported a few acts at last year’s edition and, as for Junior Eurovision, Kaleen took the responsibility of the creative direction of Spain and Bulgaria in 2021 and the overall stage direction in 2022. 

 

The rehearsal 

Austria’s Kaleen is here to remind us that if heartbreak is the problem, rave is the solution.

Staging-wise, there’s an inverted pyramid made of metal scaffolding hanging above the middle of the stage, that shoots lasers, giving the stage a warehouse rave vibe. She starts the performance wearing a long white coat with a train, but that’s dispensed with as soon as the bass kicks in, revealing a silver sparkly leotard and thigh boots. She has four male backing dancers, wearing black cargo pants, sleeveless jackets and oversized wraparound shades. With Kaleen they deliver a full-on dance routine that covers the whole stage.

There’s also a RUM-DE-DUM-DA-DA hip swivel move. Genuinely wish it was possible to explain what this track FEELS like at full volume in the arena – it’s very much a full body experience.

PYRO UPDATE! Smoke and steam jets, and Kaleen tried a different (and much fluffier) white coat. No idea which will make it through to second rehearsals – we’ll find out later in the week!

Austria first rehearsal at Eurovision 2024. Credit: Corinne Cumming/EBU

 

 

Take a look at Austria’s first rehearsal from the TikTok video below:

https://www.tiktok.com/@eurovision/video/7363316161389382945?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7269788284946957856

 

Austria’s second rehearsal is on Thursday, 2nd of May and we will receive more information regarding how the performance will be presented on TV. 

Source: eurovision.tv

Stay tuned to EurovisionFun for all the news! 

Eurovision 2024: The schedule of the third day of rehearsals (Monday 29 April)!

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Malmö Arena opened its gates on Saturday for the rehearsals of the 37 participating countries of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest, and the action continues today with the first eight countries of the second semi-final taking to the stage for the first time.

With no major changes expected this year, the rehearsals for Eurovision 2024 are expected to take place in the upcoming week. Rehearsals are divided into two phases, the first which will run for four days from today until Tuesday 30/04 and will include the initial first rehearsals of all countries taking part in the two semi-finals of the contest and the second which will run from Wednesday 01/05 until Saturday 04/05 and will include the second rehearsals of the countries in the two semi-finals as well as both rehearsals of the countries competing directly in the Final, namely the Big 5 and the host Sweden.

Last year’s changes in the way the rehearsals are covered are maintained this year, as the Press Centre opens on the Monday after the first and second rehearsals.

As a consequence, the information we will have for the first week of the contest will come exclusively from the material provided by the EBU to accredited journalists, as well as through the Live Blogs on Reddit and the short videos on TikTok.

Today’s Schedule

Eight countries are set to take to the stage at Malmö Arena for their first rehearsal, with Malta and Sarah Bonnici “kicking off” on Saturday morning. The detailed schedule for the second day of rehearsals of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest is as follows (Mentioned in CET/Swedish Time):

 

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OGAE Poll 2024: The results from Finland, Austria and Romania| Croatia is the winner!

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Every year since 2007, OGAE International conducts the OGAE Poll, which includes the votes of its members from 42 different countries. Last fan clubs to reveal their votes are those of Finland, Austria and Romania! Read more