We are only a few days away from this year’s Eurovision Song Contest which will take place in Turin. Soon the rehearsals of this year’s 40 entries will begin, giving us a taste of what we will see on stage during the three big nights of Eurovision, but also clarifying the fate of possible favourites.
In the following article, we will analyse which countries have the best chance of making it to the Grand Final, depending on the position in which they were placed to compete and specifically the history of each country, since the system of semi-finals in 2008, that competed in that position. Finally, we will also look at how the countries that competed in those positions ranked in the semi-finals.
Seventeen countries will compete on Tuesday 10 May for the first ten tickets to the Grand Final on 14 May.
1. Albania
Albania will kick off the first semi-final with Ronela Hajati and the song “Sekret”.
Position number one for the First Semifinal is statistically one of the worst places to compete. Specifically, since 2008 only five of the 13 countries that appeared in this position have made it to the Final in 2010(10th), 2014(4th), 2017(3rd), 2019(9th) and 2021(4th).
2. Latvia
The ominous 2nd place will be taken by Citi Zēni and “Eat Your Salad”.
Only five of the 13 countries that appeared in second place in this semi-final have fared well in 2008(5th), 2010(7th), 2012(8th), 2013(10th), and 2015 (7th).
3. Lithuania
Third place in this semi-final is statistically as bad as the two above. Only five of the 13 countries have qualified performing third in 2012(4th), 2015(2nd), 2017(6th), 2018(8th) and 2021(3rd).
The country is represented by Monika Liu with the song “Sentimentai”.
4. Switzerland
In 4th place appears Marius Bear with “Boys Do Cry”.
Based on statistics, Switzerland has the worst position in this Semi-Final, as only three countries that have appeared in 4th place in the First Semi-Final have gotten a ticket to the Final, in 2014 (2nd), 2016 (4th) and 2021 (7th).
5. Slovenia
Slovenia is represented by LPS with the song “Disko”.
Based on the statistics, 62% of the countries that appeared in fifth place managed to qualify – in 2009 (4th), 2012 (2nd), 2013 (1st), 2014 (8th), 2016 (10th), 2017 (4th), 2018 (3rd), 2019 (6th). Hence, it’s a good spot.
6. Ukraine
Representatives of Ukraine are the Kalush Orchestra with the song “Stefania”.
The sixth place is as favourable as the fifth. That is, in other words, eight of the 13 countries that participated in the sixth place made it to the Final.
Specifically, in the years 2009 (5th), 2011 (8th), 2012 (3rd), 2013 (2nd),2015 (6th), 2016 (5th), 2018 (9th), 2019 (2nd).
7. Bulgaria
Judging by the qualification statistics, it is as favoured as the previous two, as only five countries that appeared in seventh place did not get a ticket to the Final in 2009, 2012, 2017, 2019 and 2021.
That is to say, eight of the 13 countries that appeared in eighth place made it to the Final. Specifically, 2008 (6th), 2010 (1st), 2011 (9th), 2013 (3rd), 2014 (6th), 2015 (3rd), 2016 (2nd), and 2018 (1st).
Bulgaria is represented by Intelligent Music Project with “Intention”.
8. The Netherlands
S10 represents the Netherlands with the song “De diepte”.
If we rely on the statistics, only in the years 2010 (8th), 2011 (10th), 2013 (6th), 2014 (9th), 2017 (8th), 2019 (10th) and 2021 (6th) someone who appeared in this position managed to qualify.
9. Moldova
Zdob și Zdub and Frații Advahov will be on the Eurovision stage for the third time. The song is called “Trenulețul”.
The ninth place is exceptionally favourable, as only three countries that appeared in this position failed to get a ticket to the final (2010, 2012, 2013).
In other words, ten of the 13 that appeared 9th made it to the Final, 2008 (4th), 2009 (2nd), 2011 (6th), 2014 (5th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (1st), 2017 (1st), 2018 (5th), 2019 (7th) and 2021 (10th).
10. Portugal
The representative of Portugal is Maro with “Saudade, saudade”.
The tenth place is quite favourable, as only four countries have been eliminated, in 2012, 2014, 2019 and 2021.
The placings of the countries that competed in this position in the semi-final were 2008 (10th – got the wildcard of the juries), 2009 (7th), 2010 (1st), 2011 (3rd), 2013 (9th), 2015 (8th), 2016 (9th), 2017 (10th) and 2018 (7th).
11. Croatia
Mia Dimšić with “Guilty Pleasure”” represents Croatia.
Statistically the 11th place is one of the worst in the First Semi-Final. Only four of the 13 countries that appeared in 11th place made it to the Final, namely in 2013 (7th), 2016 (8th), 2017 (9th) and 2021 (9th).
12. Denmark
The Danish representatives are Reddi with “The Show”.
The statistics are on their side. Only three times when someone appeared twelfth did they fail to qualify for the Final, in 2008, 2011 and 2018.
While those who appeared 12th in this Semifinal got the following positions: 2009 (1st), 2010 (6th), 2012 (7th), 2013 (4th), 2014 (10th), 2015 (1st), 2016 (7th), 2017 (2nd), 2019 (1st) and 2021 (5th).
13. Austria
Lumix ft. Pia Maria with “Halo” are the representatives of Austria.
The qualification from 13th place is quite modest, as only six entries have made it to the Final from this position in 2008 (9th), 2010 (2nd), 2012 (13th), 2013 (8th), 2018 (4th) and 2019 (3rd).
14. Iceland
The country’s representatives are Systur with “Með hækkandi sól”.
Looking at the qualification statistics from the fourteenth place, it is heavily favoured, as only three countries that appeared in that position were eliminated from the final in the years 2013, 2017 and 2018.
The placements of countries that competed in this position in the Semi-Final were; 2008 (2nd), 2009 (9th), 2010 (4th), 2011 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2014 (1st), 2015 (10th), 2016 (6th), 2019 (4th) and 2021 (8th).
15. Greece
Greece is represented by Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord with “Die Together”.
The fifteenth place is very good, only four entries from 2008 were eliminated by performing at this position in 2008, 2010, 2016 and 2019.
The placements of the countries that competed in this position in the Semi-Final were; 2009 (12th, had won the wildcard of the committees), 2011 (7th), 2012 (10th), 2013 (5th), 2014 (7th), 2015 (5th), 2017 (5th), 2018 (10th) and 2021 (2nd).
16. Norway
Subwoolfer with “Give That Wolf a Banana” are the representatives of Norway.
Only five times someone who appeared in sixteenth place did not qualify for the Final (2011, 2012, 2013, 2013, 2016, 2018) while they managed to qualify eight times.
The places taken on those eight times were; 2008 (8th), 2009 (8th), 2010 (9th), 2014 (3rd), 2015 (4th), 2017 (7th), 2019 (5th) and 2021 (1st).
17. Armenia
The First Semi-Final will be completed by Armenia, with Rosa Linn and the song “Snap”.
The 17th place is one of the best in this semi-final.
This position counts six qualifiers and three eliminations (2016, 2017 and 2018).
The placements of the countries that competed in this position in the Semi-Final were; 2008 (7th), 2009 (6th), 2010 (3rd), 2011 (5th), 2012 (5th) and 2019 (8th).
*Please note that most of the times whoever appears last is usually seen in the Final but in this case we judged the 17th place which this year happens to be the last place in the Semi-Final.
Conclusion
If we had to divide the countries into three groups ( advantaged, 50-50, not advantaged), we would statistically have:
Advantaged:
- Denmark 10/13
- Iceland 10/13
- Moldova 10/13
- Armenia 6/9
- Greece 9/13
- Portugal 9/13
- Bulgaria 8/13
- Norway 8/13
- Slovenia 8/13
- Ukraine 8/13
50-50:
- The Netherlands 7/13
- Austria 6/13
Not advantaged:
- Albania 5/13
- Latvia 5/13
- Lithuania 5/13
- Croatia 4/13
- Switzerland 3/13
Below is a video prepared by one of our editors featuring the ranking of the countries of the First Semi-Final based on the average number of placings received by each entry, separately for each order of appearance:
This concludes the first part of the analysis. The analysis of the second semi-final of Eurovision 2022 will follow, stay tuned.
Don’t forget to Vote in our poll! For the First Semi-final you vote HERE and for the Second Semi-final you vote HERE.
